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Wind extinguishes a candle but energizes fire.-
CESM测试Aqua Planet试验
开始测试Aqua-Planet试验，直接按照aqua的设置run没有任何问题，但是发现SST没有annual cycle，询问师姐：
你是用的cesm的default的 aqua compset吗 如果是的话，那么好像是不需要额外读入sst文件的，而是直接在code里指定需要哪种sst profile就可以，具体是通过修改ocn_comp.F90 中 sst_option，这里不同的sst_option代表不同的profile；关于topo，好像你是需要在user_nl_cam里指定一个新的topo文件的(把高度啥的设为0)
这么说还需要自己写一个topo为0的文件。
修改轨道参数，固定黄赤交角为0度：
rb_mode='fixed_parameters' orb_obliq=0.0 orb_eccen=0.0167239 orb_mvelp=102.035Updated 2018-05-14
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20181011交易笔记-跟得上的旋律，踩不中的鼓点
我们看下八月份的策略总结：
- 油价回调到65以下开始加仓。
- 低买offshore高卖onshore硬通货。
- 佛系加仓贵金属。
- 再次强调几条底线：50%家庭负债率红线；6个月流动性；30%风投红线。
- 少看盘多看书，多写代码搭系统。
过去两个月，1没机会，一路突突突。2没流动性，3佛了几把，4风投红线边缘试探。5已经尽力做到。
老规矩，重要的还是记录错误。过去两个月最大问题就如同题目所说，跟得上旋律，踩不中鼓点。
EWH put最高浮盈130%，但是持有到Expire被一波反弹干到-20%；随后单周VIX call上场，out of money后没有rolling，然后呢，我们看下这周：
日了狗。踩节奏难，不算清楚option price in了多少预期，out of money还没发达到套保目的。想想portfolio本身还是没什么问题，短期回撤也能接受，还是谨慎点，别上来就干，多读书了解。
宏观形势上tarrif在9月底进一步加码，纵深发展无法避免。就像Dalio所说，单纯的tarrif不是什么问题，问题是CN US两大国之间的关系在未来走向何方。时老师14年的书里讲清楚了，波动和趋势，趋势的力量怕根本不是什么川总的花边新闻，驴象扯皮能改变的。
US端不确定性是中期，以及关系上进一步财长宣布汇操。
市场情绪面上整体非常悲观。
我呢？依然乐观。最近看吴晓波《十年二十人》采访红杉沈南鹏，开始反思自己关注社会经济的时候忽略了什么。每一代人里都有佼佼者，踏踏实实做事的人，创造价值的人，慧眼寻找潜在价值并给予机会的人，减熵，为世界增加有序对而不是尸位素餐的人。他们的存在确保了社会全要素生产率水位不断提高。 前提是渠道的畅通。环境改变，渠道会彻底在正反馈下封死么？我想不会的，人性不变，但全要素生产率的水位一直向上走，每一代人的平均受教育程度也是向上的，大道之行，只是波动磕碰难免。
天佑中华，做好自己的事情，言尽于此。
Updated 2018-10-12
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Interview: Ray Dalio's Lessons from the Financial Crisis
Recently, Ray Dalio was interviewed by several medias after he had published his new book named as “A template for understanding big debt crises” (hereafter “Crises”, free PDF available here). Dalio became more public after he had published his new book “Principles” in 2016. This year, 2018, the newly published book “Crises” makes the situation subtle. I have downloaded the new book and prepared to read it. However, now, I hope to summarize the key points that Mr. Dalio raised in the interviewed video.
Bloomberg
Everything happens over and over again.
Template: Inflationary depression
Key point: The debt is nominated in the nation’s own currency or foreign currency.
If the debt is nominated by foreign currency, e.g. dollar. When the dollar goes up, the country does not have enough cash to pay the debt, so print more money to pay the debt, and the inflation and devaluation come.
However, if the debt is nominated in the country’s own currency, the depreciation will wipe out the debt, naturally.
Then, when the currency becomes cheaper, the country will export more and import less. If the country remains an healthy environment to invest, foreign capitals will come back.
The central bank, by monetary policy, should make the interest rate compensate the depreciation of the currency.(Interest = Infaltion + Devaluation) This is the way to track the bottom of the devaluation of the country’s currency.
(Turkey, Argentina is around 1/3 distance to the bottom)
After 2008:
- Central banks: print money and buy financial assets.
- Price of financial assets goes up, and cause greater wealth gap.
- Most people do not benefit from the process. Populism comes.
- The central bank starts to raise the interest rate (we are in tightening cycle), with populism, it is hard. (political and social problem/extreme monetary policy) ~ 2 years since 2018.9.17 (30% down of dollar prices) Gradual down.
CNBC
About China, tariff.
China can handle this. Big deal: relationship with China (antagonism is bad!).
China’s debt is denominated in CNY, and dealing with it before the crisis, and from a top-down method, Dalio thinks China can deal with it well enough.
Updated 2018-09-17