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Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part2
书童按：本篇是帕维尔·杜罗夫（Pavel Durov）于2025年10月接受Lex Fridman的播客采访实录，Pavel是端到端加密通信软件Telegram的创始人兼CEO。其采访中涉及精简团队、高度自动化、法国被捕、审查、企业家的困境等话题，精彩绝伦，令人击节称赞。初稿采用AI机器翻译，经自动化中英混排，书童仅做简单校对及批注。原稿中英文混排近7万字，书童将分为Part1-4发出，本篇是第二部分，以飨诸君。
Telegram: 精简哲学、隐私与地缘政治
Telegram: Lean philosophy, privacy, and geopolitics
Lex Fridman (00:41:26) 好的。我们休息了一下，现在回来了。我得问问你关于 Telegram 这家公司的事情。我有幸见到了一些在那里工作的杰出工程师。与其他达到 Telegram 这样规模的科技公司相比，Telegram 的运行很精简。它的员工非常少。那么，核心团队有多少人？比如说核心工程团队。
Lex Fridman (00:41:26) All right. We took a break and now we’re back. I got to ask you about Telegram, the company. I got to meet some of the brilliant engineers that worked there. Telegram runs lean relative to other technology companies that achieve the scale that Telegram does. It has very few employees. So, how many people are on the core team? Let’s say the core engineering team.
Pavel Durov (00:41:48) 核心工程团队大约有 40 人。这包括后端、前端、设计师、系统管理员。
Pavel Durov (00:41:48) The core engineering team is about 40 people. This includes back-end, front-end, designers, system administrators.
Lex Fridman (00:42:02) 你能谈谈用如此少的员工运营一家公司背后的哲学吗？
Lex Fridman (00:42:02) Can you speak to the philosophy behind running a company with so few employees?
Pavel Durov (00:42:10) 嗯，我们很早就意识到，员工的数量并不等同于他们生产的产品质量。在很多情况下，情况恰恰相反。如果人太多，他们必须协调彼此的工作，不断沟通，他们 90% 的时间将花在相互协调他们负责的那一小部分工作上。员工太多的另一个问题是，有些人会没有足够的工作可做，而如果他们没活干，他们仅仅存在就会让其他所有人失去动力。他们还在那里，仍然领着薪水，但他们什么都不做。
Pavel Durov (00:42:10) Well, what we realized really early is that quantity of employees doesn’t translate the quality of the product they produce. In many cases, it’s the opposite. If you have too many people, they have to coordinate their efforts, constantly communicate, and 90% of their time will be spent on coordinating the small pieces of work they’re responsible for between each other. The other problem with having too many employees is that some of them won’t get enough work to do, and if they don’t get enough work to do, they demotivate everybody else by their mere existence. They’re still there, they’re still getting the salary, but they don’t do anything.
(00:43:01) 如果他们什么都不做，他们多半会开始尝试在其他地方寻找自己的存在价值，也许是在你的团队内部，但不是通过做有成效的工作，而是通过寻找团队中并不存在的问题。这会进一步破坏团队和团队内的氛围。此外，当你故意不允许某些团队成员雇佣更多人来帮助他们时，他们将被迫实现自动化。在我们的案例中，我们在全球有数万台服务器，接近 10 万台，分布在几个大洲和数据中心。
(00:43:01) If they don’t do anything, more often than not, they will start trying to find their purpose elsewhere, maybe inside your team, but not by doing productive work, but by finding problems that don’t exist within the team. That can disrupt the team and the mood inside it even further. Also, when you intentionally don’t allow some of your team members to hire more people to help them, they’ll be forced to automate things. In our case, we have tens of thousands of servers around the world, almost 100,000 distributed across several continents and data centers.
(00:44:02) 如果你试图在没有自动化的情况下手动管理这个系统，你最终可能需要雇佣数千人，甚至数万人。但如果你依赖算法，并且团队被迫整合算法来管理它，那么它就变得更具可扩展性，更高效，而且有趣的是，也可靠得多。
(00:44:02) If you try to manage this system manually without automation, you will probably end up hiring thousands of people, tens of thousands of people. But if you rely on algorithms and the team is forced to put together algorithms in order to manage it, then it becomes much more scalable, much more efficient, and interestingly, much more reliable as well.
Lex Fridman (00:44:31) 并且对不断变化的地缘政治、不断变化的技术等等更具韧性。因为如果你将数据存储和所有计算的分布式方面自动化，那么它就能抵御世界向你抛来的一切。我想如果你让人来管理所有这一切，它很快就会变得僵化。
Lex Fridman (00:44:31) And more resilient to the changing geopolitics, to the changing technology, all of that. Because if you automate the distributed aspect of the data storage and all the compute, then that’s going to be resilient to everything the world throws at you. I suppose if you have people managing all of it, it becomes stale quickly.
Pavel Durov (00:44:54) 是的，人类是攻击载体，如果你有一个自动运行的分布式系统，你就有机会提高服务的速度安全性和速度，这就是我们在 Telegram 所做的，同时也使其更加可靠。因为如果网络的某部分出现故障，你仍然可以切换到其他部分。
Pavel Durov (00:44:54) Yes, humans are attack vectors, and if you have a distributed system that runs itself automatically, you have a chance at increasing the security of speed and speed of your service, this is what we did with Telegram, while also making it much more reliable. Because if some part of the network goes down, you can still switch to the other parts of it.
Lex Fridman (00:45:25) 是的。你保护用户隐私的一个重要方式是你存储数据的方式。Telegram 的基础设施端分布在许多法律管辖区，并且解密密钥也是分散的。所以，数据在云端是加密的。解密密钥被分割并保存在不同的位置，这样没有任何单一政府或实体能够访问数据。你能解释一下这种方法的好处吗？
Lex Fridman (00:45:25) Yeah. One of the big ways you protect user privacy is that you store the data. The infrastructure side of Telegram is distributed across many legal jurisdictions with the decryption keys. So, it’s encrypted in cloud. The decryption keys are split and kept in different locations so that no single government or entity can access the data. Can you explain the strength of this approach?
Pavel Durov (00:45:55) 我们设计 Telegram 的方式是，我们从不希望任何人类、任何员工能够访问私人消息数据。这就是为什么自 2012 年以来，当我们试图构思这个设计时，我们总是投入大量精力来确保没有人能够破坏它。即使你雇佣了一个员工，或者现有的任何员工，都无法以允许他们访问用户消息的方式破坏系统。然后当然我们推出了端到端加密消息，这种消息受到更多保护，但它有一定的局限性。所以，你仍然必须依赖加密的云端。因此，一个有趣的工程挑战是如何确保在你的团队内部或外部不会产生任何单点故障。
Pavel Durov (00:45:55) The way we designed Telegram is we never wanted to have any humans, any employees have any access to private messaging data. That’s why since 2012 when we’ve been trying to come up with this design, we always invested a lot of effort into making sure that nobody can mess with it. If you hire an employee or any of the existing employee, it can’t break the system in a way that would allow them to access messages of users. Then of course we launched end-to-end encrypted messaging that is even more protected, but it has certain limitations. So, you still have to rely on an encrypted cloud. So, an interesting engineering challenge was how you make sure that no point of failure can be created within your team or outside.
Lex Fridman (00:46:58) 所以没有任何员工能够访问用户消息。就是这样。我们谈论加密，谈论隐私，谈论安全，所有这些事情。我认为人们最关心的事情，同时也是存在很多错误信息的，就是关于私人消息。所以，Telegram 对用户的私人消息保护得非常非常严密。你说员工永远无法访问私人消息。过去是否有任何政府或情报机构曾访问过用户的私人消息？
Lex Fridman (00:46:58) So no employee can even access user messages. So, that’s the thing. We talk about encryption, we talk about privacy, we talk about security, all these kinds of things. I think the number one thing that people are concerned about, about which there’s also misinformation, is about private messages. So, Telegram is very, very protective of the private messages of users. So, you’re saying employees never can access the private messages. Have any governments or intelligence agencies ever accessed private user messages in the past?
Pavel Durov (00:47:38) 没有，从来没有。Telegram 从未与任何人，包括政府和情报机构，分享过任何一条私人消息。如果你试图访问任何数据中心位置的任何服务器，所有数据都是加密的。你可以取出所有硬盘并进行分析，但你什么也得不到。所有数据都以无法破译的方式加密。这对我们来说非常重要。这就是为什么我们可以自信地说，从未发生过数据泄露，任何来自 Telegram 的数据泄露。无论是私人消息，还是联系人列表。
Pavel Durov (00:47:38) No, never. Telegram has never shared a single private message with anyone, including governments and intelligence services. If you try to access any server in any of the data center locations, it’s all encrypted. You can extract all the hard drives and analyze it, but you won’t get anything. It’s all encrypted in the way that is undecipherable. That was very important for us. That’s why we can say with confidence, there hasn’t been ever a leakage of data, any leak of data from Telegram. Not in terms of private messages, not in terms of say contact lists.
Lex Fridman (00:48:28) 你是否预见到未来可能出现某种情况，你可能会与政府或情报机构分享用户的私人消息？
Lex Fridman (00:48:28) Do you see in the future a possible scenario where you might share user private messages with governments or with intelligence agencies?
Pavel Durov (00:48:39) 不会。我们设计的系统使得这不可能实现。这需要我们改变系统，而我们不会那样做，因为我们对用户做出了承诺。我们宁愿在某个国家关闭 Telegram，也不会那样做。
Pavel Durov (00:48:39) No. We designed a system in a way that’s impossible. It’ll require us to change the system and we won’t do that because we made a promise to our users. We would rather shut Telegram down in a certain country than do that.
Lex Fridman (00:48:56) 所以这是你运营所遵循的原则之一，即保护用户隐私。
Lex Fridman (00:48:56) So that’s one of the principles you operate under is you go into protect user privacy.
Pavel Durov (00:49:03) 我认为这是根本。没有隐私权，人们就无法感到完全自由和受保护。
Pavel Durov (00:49:03) I think it’s fundamental. Without the right to privacy, people can’t feel fully free and protected.
Lex Fridman (00:49:11) 我的意思是，这是个好地方来问这个问题。我相信你受到各种各样的人、各种各样的组织的压力，要求分享私人数据。你从哪里获得力量和无所畏惧的精神，对所有人说不，包括强大的情报机构，包括强大的政府，有影响力的、有权势的人？
Lex Fridman (00:49:11) I mean, this is a good place to ask. I’m sure you’re pressured by all kinds of people, all kinds of organizations to share private data. Where do you find the strength and the fearlessness to say no to everybody, including powerful intelligence agencies, including powerful governments, influential, powerful people?
Pavel Durov (00:49:33) 我想部分原因只是我就是我。我从小就开始捍卫自己和自己的价值观。我总是和我的老师们有矛盾，因为我会在课堂上指出他们的错误。归根结底，重要的是提醒自己，你没有什么可失去的。他们可能认为可以用某些东西勒索你，可以用某些东西威胁你，但他们到底能对你做什么呢？最坏的情况，他们可以杀了你，但这又把我们带回到讨论的第一部分。活在恐惧中是毫无意义的。
Pavel Durov (00:49:33) I guess part of it is just me being me. I stood up for myself and for my values since I was a little kid. I always had issues with my teachers because I would point out their mistakes during classes. At the end of the day, what’s important is to remind yourself that you have nothing to lose. They can think they blackmail you with something, they can threaten you with something, but what is it they really can really do to you? Worst case, they can kill you, but that brings us back to the first part of our discussion. There’s no point living your life in fear.
(00:50:21) 至于 Telegram，它非常成功，但如果我们失去一个市场或两个市场，或者几乎所有的市场，我并不那么在意。这不会影响我，不会以任何方式影响我的生活方式。我仍然会做我的俯卧撑。所以，如果你不喜欢加密，不喜欢隐私，认为你应该在你的国家禁止加密，就像欧盟现在试图为其所有成员国做的那样，好吧，尽管去做。我们只会退出这个市场。我们不会在那里运营。这没那么重要。他们都以为我们 somehow 从他们的公民那里获利，科技公司唯一的目标就是榨取收入。没错，大多数科技公司都是这样的，但也有像 Telegram 这样有点不同的项目，我不确定他们是否意识到这一点。
(00:50:21) As for Telegram, it’s incredibly successful, but if we lose one market or two markets or pretty much all of the markets, I don’t care that much. It won’t affect me, it won’t affect my lifestyle in any way. I’ll still be doing my pushups. So, you don’t like encryption, you don’t like privacy, you think you should ban encryption in your country, like the European Union is trying to do now for all the member states, well, go ahead and do that. We’ll just quit this market. We won’t operate there. It’s not that important. They all think that somehow we profit from their citizens, and the only goal tech companies have is extracting revenues. It’s true, most tech companies are like this, but there are projects like Telegram which are a bit different and I’m not sure they realize that.
Lex Fridman (00:51:23) 所以对你来说，在原则方面保持你的正直，其价值比任何其他事情都重要。当然，我们应该说，你也完全有能力并且有控制权来做到这一点，因为你，Pavel Durov，拥有 Telegram 100% 的股份。所以，在这个问题上没有其他人有发言权。
Lex Fridman (00:51:23) So for you, the value of maintaining your integrity in relation to your principles is more important than anything else. Of course, we should say that you also have full ability and control to do just that because you, Pavel Durov, own 100% of Telegram. So, there’s no anybody with a say on this question.
Pavel Durov (00:51:47) 没有股东，这是相当独特的。
Pavel Durov (00:51:47) There are no shareholders, which is quite unique.
Lex Fridman (00:51:52) 非常独特。我认为在任何大型科技公司中，甚至没有接近这种情况的。
Lex Fridman (00:51:52) Very unique. I don’t think there’s anything even close to that in any major tech company.
Pavel Durov (00:51:56) 这使我们能够以我们自己的方式运营，基于某些基本原则来构建和维护这个项目，顺便说一句，我认为每个人都相信这些原则。我认为隐私权被包括在大多数国家的宪法中，至少大多数西方国家，但它几乎每周都受到攻击。它通常始于善意的提议。哦，我们必须打击犯罪，我们必须这样做，我们必须保护儿童。但归根结底，结果是一样的。人们失去了像隐私这样基本的东西的权利。他们有时会失去表达自己、集会的权利。
Pavel Durov (00:51:56) And this allows us to operate the way we operate, to build this project and maintain it based on certain fundamental principles, which by the way, I think everybody believes in. I think the right to privacy is included in the constitution of most countries, at least most Western countries, but it’s still under attack almost every week. It often starts with well-meaning proposals. Oh, we have to fight crime, we have to do that, we have to protect the children. But at the end of the day, the result is the same. People lose their right to such fundamental thing as privacy. They sometimes lose their right to express themselves, to assemble.
(00:52:47) 这是一个我们在几乎每一个专制国家，或者曾经自由后来变得专制的国家都目睹的滑坡。世界上没有一个独裁者说过：”让我们剥夺你们的权利，因为我想为自己攫取更多权力，我想让你们痛苦。” 他们都用听起来非常合理的理由来证明其正当性，然后分阶段逐渐推进。几年后，人们会发现自己处于无助的境地。他们无法抗议。他们发送的每一条信息都被监控。他们无法集会。一切都完了。
(00:52:47) This is a slippery slope that we witnessed in pretty much every autocratic country or country that used to be free and then became autocratic. No dictator in the world ever said, “Let’s just strip you away from your rights because I want more power to myself and I want you to be miserable.” They all justified it with very reasonable sounding justifications and then it came in stages gradually. After a few years, people would find themselves in a position when they’re helpless. They can’t protest. Every message they sent is monitored. They can’t assemble. It’s over.
Lex Fridman (00:53:39) 所以你视 Telegram 为一个来自各行各业、每个国家的人都能畅所欲言、发出声音的地方。在地缘政治背景下，你提到政府当其变得专制时，自然而然地，这是世界的方式。人性和政府的本质，它们变得更具审查性。它们开始审查，并且总是在心里证明其合理性，或许假设自己在做好事。
Lex Fridman (00:53:39) So you see Telegram as a place that people from all walks of life, from every nation can have a place to speak their mind, have a voice in. In the geopolitical context, you’re mentioning that government when they become autocratic naturally is the way of the world. Human nature and the nature of governments, they become more censorious. They begin to censor and always justifying it in their minds perhaps assuming that they’re doing good.
Pavel Durov (00:54:08) 也许他们中的一些人认为自己在做好事，但有趣的是，其结果总是国家以牺牲个人为代价积累更多权力。那么它在哪里停止呢？我们人类不太擅长找到正确的平衡，在这种情况下，就是在混乱与秩序、自由与结构之间找到正确的平衡。我们往往走向极端。
Pavel Durov (00:54:08) Perhaps some of them assume they’re doing good, but interestingly, it always results in the state accumulating more power at the expense of the individual. Then where does it stop? We humans are not very good at finding the right balance, and in this case, the right balance between chaos and order, between freedom and structure. We tend to go to extremes.
Lex Fridman (00:54:44) 我认为你仍然认为自己是自由主义者。关于政府，总有某种东西会随着时间的推移，自然而然地建立起越来越庞大的官僚机构。在那个官僚机构的机器中，它积累了越来越多的权力。并不总是那个官僚机构中的某个个体成员腐蚀了政府建立之初的原则，而只是随着时间的推移，某些东西被遗忘了。你开始审查。你开始限制个人的自由，限制个人发言、表达意见、投票的能力。事情就这样逐渐发生了。
Lex Fridman (00:54:44) I think you still consider yourself a libertarian. There is something about government that always over time naturally builds a larger and larger bureaucracy. In that machine of bureaucracy, it accumulates more and more power. It’s not always that one individual member of that bureaucracy is the one that corrupts the initial principles on which the government was founded, but just something over time, you forget. You begin to censor. You begin to limit the freedoms of the individual, the ability of the individuals to speak, to have a voice, to vote. It just gradually happens that way.
Pavel Durov (00:55:29) 而政府并不是某种抽象的概念。政府是由人组成的，这些人有目标。他们自然会倾向于增加影响力，拥有更多的下属，拥有更多的资源。这就是你最终陷入一个无限循环的原因：不断增加的税收，不断增加的监管，这最终扼杀了自由市场、自由企业和言论自由。所以，你确实希望对政府能够以牺牲公民为代价来增加其权力的程度进行非常、非常严格的限制。讽刺的是，你并没有那些限制。
Pavel Durov (00:55:29) And the government is not some abstract notion. The government consists of people and these people have goals. They would naturally be inclined to increase the level of influence, to have more subordinates, to have more resources. That’s how you end up in an endless loop of ever-increasing taxes, ever-increasing regulation, which ultimately suffocates free market, free enterprise, and free speech. So, you do want to have very, very strict limitations on the extent the government can increase its powers at the expense of citizens. Ironically, you don’t have those limitations.
(00:56:22) 在所有被认为是自由的国家里，本应是宪法保护每个人，但有趣的是，事情并不总是这样运作。他们能够找到非常狡猾的措辞来 carve out 例外，然后例外就成了规则。
(00:56:22) You’re supposed in all countries, which are considered to be free. It’s supposed to be the constitution that protects everybody, but interestingly, it doesn’t work always this way. They are able to find very tricky phrasings in order to carve out exceptions and then the exception becomes the rule.
在法国被捕
Arrest in France
Lex Fridman (00:56:49) 关于这个话题，我很想和你谈谈最近的一段经历，关于你去年八月在法国被捕的事。我认为我应该说，这是我近期乃至整个历史上所见过的对科技领袖最严重的权力过度扩张之一。所以，这是悲剧性的，但我觉得它说明了我们一直在谈论的事情。那么，也许你能讲述一下整个事件的经过？你到达了法国。
Lex Fridman (00:56:49) On this topic, I’d love to talk to you about the recent saga of you being arrested in the August of last year in France. I think I should say that it’s one of the worst overreaches of power I’ve seen as applied to a tech leader in recent history, in all history. So, it’s tragic, but I think speaks to the thing that we’ve been talking about. So, maybe can you tell the full saga what happened? You arrived in France.
Pavel Durov (00:57:24) 我去年八月抵达法国，只是一个短暂的两天行程，然后我看到十几个武装警察迎接我，并要求我跟着他们。他们向我宣读了一份清单，上面列出了大约 15 项我被指控的严重罪行，这令人难以置信。起初，我以为一定是搞错了。然后我意识到他们是认真的，他们指控我犯了 Telegram 用户据称犯下的所有可能的罪行，或者是一些用户，他们认为我应该对此负责，这又像你说的，是这个星球历史上从未发生过的事情。没有一个国家，甚至不是专制国家，曾对任何科技领袖这样做过，至少不是这种规模。
Pavel Durov (00:57:24) I arrived in France last year in August just for a short two-day trip and then I see a dozen of armed policemen greeting me and asked me to follow them. They read me a list of something like 15 serious crimes that I’m accused of, which was mind-boggling. At first, I thought there must be some mistake. Then I realized they’re being serious and they’re accusing me of all possible crimes that the users of Telegram have allegedly committed or some users and they think I should be responsible for this, which again, like you said, it’s something that never happened in the history of this planet. No country, not even an authoritarian one did that to any tech leader, at least at this scale.
(00:58:37) 这样做有充分理由，因为通过向商业和科技界传递这些信息，你是在牺牲经济增长的很大一部分。于是，他们把我放进警车，我发现自己被警方拘留。小房间，没有窗户，只有一张狭窄的混凝土床。我在那里呆了将近四天。在这个过程中，我必须回答警察的一些问题。他们对 Telegram 的运作方式感兴趣。反正大部分都是公开的，令我震惊的是，发起这项调查的人对技术如何运作、加密如何工作、社交媒体如何运作的理解非常有限，或者我该说甚至缺乏理解。
(00:58:37) There are good reasons for that because you are sacrificing a big part of your economic growth by sending these messages to the business and tech community. So, they put me in a police car and I found myself in police custody. Small room, no windows, just a narrow bed made of concrete. I spent almost four days there. In the process, I had to answer some questions of the policemen. They were interested in how Telegram operates. Most of it is public anyway, and I was struck by very limited understanding or should I say even lack of understanding on behalf of the people who initiated this investigation against me by how technology works, how encryption works, how social media work.
Lex Fridman (00:59:57) 我的意思是，这有一种黑暗的诗意：一个拥有十亿人在上面交流的平台的科技创始人，你却待在混凝土床上，几天没有枕头，没有窗户。我是弗朗茨·卡夫卡的忠实粉丝，他写过关于这类情况的荒谬性，因此有了”卡夫卡式”的故事。他写过一个故事，也许预言了， literally 就是这种情况，叫做《审判》，其中一个人被捕，原因无人能解释，并且长时间困在司法系统中，有趣的是，在那个故事里，无论是被捕的人还是系统内的任何个体成员，都没有完全理解正在发生什么。
Lex Fridman (00:59:57) I mean, there’s something darkly poetic about a tech founder of a platform where a billion people are communicating with each other and you’re on concrete, no pillow for days, no windows. I’m a huge fan of Franz Kafka and he’s written about the absurdity of these kinds of situations, hence the Kafkaesque stories. There’s a story literally about the situation that he wrote, perhaps predicted, called The Trial, where a person is arrested for no reason that anybody can explain and is stuck in the judicial system for a long time, that nobody fascinatingly in that story, neither the person arrested nor any individual member of the system itself fully understand what is happening.
(01:00:45) 没有人能真正回答这些问题，最终，这个人——剧透警告——被整个系统精神摧垮，这就是官僚机构在其最荒谬形式下所能做到的。它摧垮了精神，我们所有人身上承载的人类精神。这就是官僚机构的负面影响。
(01:00:45) Nobody can truly answer the questions and eventually the person, spoiler alert, is mentally broken by the whole system, which is what bureaucracy can do in its most absurd form. It breaks the spirit, the human spirit laden in all of us. That’s the negative side of bureaucracy.
Pavel Durov (01:01:05) 我同意你关于这件事的荒谬性，因为如果这是一个善意地试图解决问题的尝试，有那么多种方式可以联系 Telegram，联系我本人，表达他们的关切，并以常规和外交的方式解决任何所谓的问题，就像这个星球上其他每个国家解决这些问题的方式一样，包括与 Telegram。我们这样做过几十次。
Pavel Durov (01:01:05) I agree with you on the absurdity of this thing because if this was a good faith attempt to fix an issue, there were so many ways to reach out to Telegram, to reach out to me personally, voice their concerns, and solve any alleged problem in a way that is conventional and diplomatic the way every other country on this planet solves these problems, including with Telegram. We did it dozens of times.
Lex Fridman (01:01:43) 是的，你们有一个很好的页面展示了这一点，就像大多数人不怎么考虑的细节，但 Telegram 处于打击 CSAM 和恐怖组织的最前沿。有一个很好的页面，telegram.org/moderation，显示了参与恐怖活动和 CSAM 活动的群组和频道的惊人数量，这些都被 Telegram 主动发现并封禁。就像你说的，由于自动化，很多这项工作是通过机器学习完成的，其规模是巨大的。
Lex Fridman (01:01:43) Yeah, you have a nice page showing this is like details that most people don’t really think about, but Telegram is at the forefront of moderating CSAM and terrorist groups. There’s a nice page, telegram.org/moderation that shows just the incredible amount of groups and channels that are engaged in terrorist activity and CSAM activity that are actively blocked, found and blocked by Telegram. A lot of this work, like you said, because of the automation is done with machine learning, just the scale is insane.
(01:02:22) 这是大多数像我这样只是在 Telegram 上聊天的新手不会想到的事情，但那里确实有大量的人 essentially 在做违法的事情，而你必须立即找到并制止它们。我想所有平台都必须处理这个问题。Telegram 在处理这些内容方面做得很好。你说的是法国政府根本不知道。他们甚至知道机器学习是什么吗？
(01:02:22) This is stuff that most noobs like me who are just chatting it up on Telegram don’t think about, but there’s just an immense number of people essentially doing things that violate the law on there and you have to find them immediately and catch it. I guess all platforms have to deal with it. Telegram was doing a great job of dealing with that content. What you’re saying is the French government had no idea. Do they even know what machine learning is?
Pavel Durov (01:02:53) 这是一个向他们解释起来很有挑战的概念，但我认为到这次调查结束时，他们会学到更多关于它的知识。这是我的希望。无论如何，你是对的。如果你看看 Telegram，我们从 10 年前就开始打击在我们的平台上公开传播的有害内容，实际上从我们在 Telegram 上推出公共频道的时候就开始了。大约从八年前开始，我们就有每日透明度报告，说明我们每天删除了多少与虐待儿童或恐怖主义宣传相关的频道。
Pavel Durov (01:02:53) It’s a concept that is challenging to explain to them, but I think they will learn much more about it by the end of this investigation. That’s my hope. In any case, you’re right. If you look at Telegram, we’ve been fighting harmful content that is publicly distributed on our platform since 10 years ago, actually since the time we launched public channels on Telegram. Since something like eight years ago, we had daily transparency reports on how many channels related to child abuse or terrorist propaganda we’ve taken down daily.
(01:03:41) 每天我们可能会删除数百个，如果包括我们移除的所有类型的内容，所有账户、群组、频道、帖子，那每周将达到数百万条内容，每天数十万条。然后有人会读到报纸，因为读到一些关于儿童色情的内容而愤怒。这是一个非常情绪化的话题，然后开始做一些不是基于数据、逻辑思考和法律，而是基于从不准确信息中产生的情绪驱动的事情。
(01:03:41) Every day we’ve taken maybe we’d take down hundreds of them, and if you include all kinds of content that we remove, all the accounts, groups, channels, posts, that would amount to millions of pieces of content every week, hundreds of thousands every day. Then somebody would read the newspaper, get enraged because they would read something about child porn. This is a subject that is very emotionally charged and start doing something not based on data and logical thinking and laws, but based on emotions driven from inaccurate input.
Lex Fridman (01:04:36) 是的，我认为我们应该非常清楚地表明，没有任何理由，法国政府本不应该逮捕你，但现实就是这样。这就是你所处的境地。那么，明确地说，你必须定期出庭面对法官。所有这一切都荒谬得可笑。如果不是极其严重的话，这会很滑稽。你必须每隔一段时间就出庭面对法官。那是什么样的经历？
Lex Fridman (01:04:36) Yeah, I think we should make pretty clear that there’s no world, no reason that the French government should have arrested you, but here we are. That’s the situation you’re in. So, to be clear, you have to show up in front of a judge. All of this is beautifully absurd. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t extremely serious. You have to show up in front of a judge every certain amount of time. What is that experience like?
Pavel Durov (01:05:01) 在法国，他们有调查法官这个角色。我认为世界上很多其他地方没有这个角色。这意味着我还没有受审，我还在被调查。在法国，不仅仅是警察或检察官问我问题。是一位法官，根据我的经验，这更像仍然是一个检察官，但被称为法官。这使得上诉更加困难。所以，如果你在可以旅行的国家受到限制，那么上诉这种限制会花费你很多时间。调查本身根本就不应该启动。对于像监管社交媒体这样复杂的问题，这是一种荒谬且有害的解决方式。这完全是错误的工具。所以，我们对调查本身提出了反对和上诉。我们去年就做了，我相信。
Pavel Durov (01:05:01) In France, they have this role of investigative judge. I don’t think you have it in many other places in the world. It means I’m not on trial, I’m being investigated. In France, it’s not just the police or prosecutor asking me questions. It’s a judge, which in my experience is more like still a prosecutor, but it’s called a judge. That makes it harder to appeal. So, if you are limited in say, countries where you can travel, then to appeal that restriction will take you a lot of time. The investigation itself should have never been started. It’s an absurd and harmful way of solving an issue such as complicated as regulating social media. It is just the wrong tool. So, we objected and appealed the investigation itself. We did last year, I believe.
(01:06:14) 我们甚至还没有得到上诉的听证日期，因为过程缓慢得令人痛苦，不仅对我，对每个人都是如此，这让我意识到这个系统可能在多个层面都出了问题。还有其他受法国司法系统影响的企业家告诉我他们经历的恐怖故事，他们的业务被调查法官非常不必要的行动所瘫痪，而这些行动最终被证明是不合理和有偏见的。最终，也许当你到达更高一级法院时，你可以解决它，得到公正，但在这个过程中你会失去大量的时间和精力。所以，这是唯一一件，我希望，与你在卡夫卡故事中讲述的情况不同并且将会不同的地方。
(01:06:14) We’re still not even given a hearing date for the appeal because the process is painfully slow, not just for me but for everybody, which made me realize the system may be broken in many levels. You have other entrepreneurs affected by the French justice system telling me horror stories about their experiences where businesses got paralyzed by very unnecessary actions of investigative judges that ended up being unjustified and biased. In the end, you can perhaps solve it when you reach a higher court and you’ll get justice, but you’ll lose a lot of time and energy in the process. So, this is the only thing that is, I hope, different and will be different in this case compared to the story you told from Kafka.
Lex Fridman (01:07:31) 我的意思是，但正如卡夫卡所描述的那样，它确实随着时间的推移摧垮了很多人。所以我们应该说，你有很长一段时间不被允许离开法国旅行。现在你可以去迪拜了。我们现在就在迪拜，有幸见到了许多在 Telegram 工作的人。Telegram 总部设在迪拜，但你不被允许去任何其他地方旅行。你觉得什么时候能来德克萨斯州和我一起聚聚？
Lex Fridman (01:07:31) I mean, but it does as Kafka describes break a lot of people with time. So, we should say that you’re for a long time not allowed to travel out of France. Now you can travel to Dubai. We’re now in Dubai, got to meet many of the people that work at Telegram. Telegram is headquartered in Dubai, but you’re not allowed to travel anywhere else. When do you think you’re coming to Texas to hang out with me over there?
Pavel Durov (01:08:01) 这是个很难回答的问题，因为它不仅仅取决于我的行动。我只能这么说，我有耐心。我不会让这种对我自由的限制支配我的行动。如果有任何影响，我只会加倍努力捍卫自由，因为我亲身经历了失去自由的感觉，至少在那四天被警方拘留期间，当你被困住，无法与对你重要的人交流，甚至不知道世界上关于你个人发生了什么。所以，我没有水晶球可以告诉我未来。我不能说我悲观。我认为我们已经能够逐步解除去年八月最初施加在我自由上的大部分限制。
Pavel Durov (01:08:01) That’s a hard question to answer because it doesn’t depend on just my actions. I can just say this, I’m patient. I will not let this limitation on my freedom dictate my actions. I will, if anything, double down on defending freedoms because I experienced firsthand what the absence of freedom feels like at least during these four days in police custody when you are just stuck, unable to communicate with people that are important to you, when you don’t even know what’s going on in the world in relation to you personally. So, I have no crystal ball that would tell me the future. I can’t say that I am pessimistic. I think we’ve been able to gradually remove most of the restrictions initially imposed on my freedom last August.
Lex Fridman (01:09:23) 如果法国政府或法国情报机构想要一个后门，或者想要访问用户的私人消息，你会对他们说什么？他们有什么办法可以获取用户的私人消息吗？
Lex Fridman (01:09:23) If the French government or the French intelligence agency want to have a back door or want to access private user messages, what would you say to them? Is there anything they can do to get access to the private user messages?
Pavel Durov (01:09:42) 没有。我的回应会非常明确，但不会很礼貌。所以，我不确定。
Pavel Durov (01:09:42) Nothing. My response would be very clear, but it won’t be very polite. So, I’m not sure.
Lex Fridman (01:09:52) 在这里说很好。
Lex Fridman (01:09:52) It’s good to say here.
Pavel Durov (01:09:53) 在这里说很好，因为你打着领带。
Pavel Durov (01:09:53) It’s good to say because you are wearing a tie.
Lex Fridman (01:09:57) 是的，这是一个严肃的、成人般的、绅士风格的节目。是的，但这是人们的一个担忧。
Lex Fridman (01:09:57) Yeah, this is a serious adult gentleman-like program. Yeah, but that is a concern.
Lex Fridman (01:10:00) ……一个绅士风格的节目，是的。但这是人们的一个担忧，当你面临来自政府的如此大的压力时，随着时间的推移，他们会拖垮你，然后你就会屈服。然后，当然，其他地方会利用这一点作为宣传来攻击你，你基本上受到每个国家的攻击。所以，这是一个难以运作的媒介。做你这样的人很难，要为自由而战，要为保护人们的隐私而战。但是，你能否说些什么来向人们保证，你不会牺牲你刚刚表达的任何原则，即使法国政府不断拖垮你？
Lex Fridman (01:10:00) … a gentleman-like program, yeah. But that is a concern that people have is when you have so much pressure from governments that, over time, they’ll wear you down and you’ll give in. And then, of course, other places use that as propaganda to try to attack you, you get attacked by basically every nation. So, it’s a difficult medium in which to operate. It’s difficult to be you fighting for freedom, fighting to preserve people’s privacy. But is there something you could say to reassure people that you’re not going to sacrifice any of the principles that you’ve just expressed if the French government just keeps wearing you down?
Pavel Durov (01:10:42) 我认为法国政府正在输掉这场战斗，这场战斗是错误的。我受到的压力越大，我就变得越有韧性和反抗精神。而且我想在过去的几个月里，当有人试图利用我困在法国的处境，接近我并要求我在其他国家做一些事情，封锁某些频道，改变 Telegram 的运作方式时，我已经证明了这一点。我不仅拒绝了，我还告诉了全世界，并且我将继续告诉全世界每一次，任何政府，特别是法国政府，试图强迫我做任何事情的实例。我宁愿失去我所拥有的一切，也不愿屈服于这种压力，因为，如果你屈服于这种压力，同意一些根本错误并且也侵犯他人权利的事情，你在内心就垮掉了，在深刻的生物和精神层面上，你变成了从前自我的空壳。
Pavel Durov (01:10:42) I think the French government is losing this battle, this battle is wrong. The more pressure I get, the more resilient and defiant I become. And I think I have proven that in the last several months when there were attempts to use my situation being stuck here in France by approaching me and asking me to do things in other countries, blocking certain channels, changing the way Telegram works. And not only I refused, I told the world about it and I’m going to keep telling the world about every instance, any government, in this case in particular, the French government, tries to force me to do anything. And I would rather lose everything I have than yield to this pressure because, if you submit to this pressure and agree with something that is fundamentally wrong and violates rights of other people as well, you become broken inside, you become a shell of your former self on a deep biological and spiritual level.
(01:12:10) 所以，我不会那样做。世界上可能还有其他人会考虑那样做，我不在乎。Telegram 消失成一些人们不理解的东西，包括这些情报机构或政府，我不在乎，我会没事的。如果他们把我关进监狱 20 年——让我们明确一点，我不认为这是现实的，但让我们只是把它当作一个假设情况来考虑——我宁愿在那里绝食而死，重启整个游戏，也不愿做蠢事。
(01:12:10) So, I wouldn’t do that. There are probably other people in the world that would consider that, I don’t care. Telegram disappears to something people don’t understand, including in this intelligence services or governments, I don’t care, I’ll be fine. If they put me into prison for 20 years which, let’s be clear, it’s not something that I think is realistic but let’s just think about it as a hypothetical situation. I would rather starve myself to death and die there, reboot the whole game than do something stupid.
罗马尼亚选举
Romanian elections
Lex Fridman (01:12:59) 让我问你一个你谈论的事情的例子。讲讲 Telegram 在罗马尼亚选举中的那段经历。那么，在所有这些之中，你仍然在为保护言论自由而战。发生了什么？你不得不做出哪些决定？
Lex Fridman (01:12:59) Let me ask you about an example of the thing you’re talking about. Tell the saga of Telegram in the Romanian election. So, amidst all this, you are still fighting to preserve the freedom of speech. What happened and what were some of the decisions you had to make?
Pavel Durov (01:13:16) 所以，当我被困在法国，几个月无法离开这个国家时，有人提出让我通过一个我相当熟悉的人会见国家外国情报部门的负责人，他实际上是法国一位知名的科技企业家，人脉很广，他说：”这个人想见你。” 我说：”好吧，行，见就见，但我不承诺任何事。” 我参加了那次会面，在那次会面中，我被要求限制我所认为的罗马尼亚的言论自由。我不知道你是否关注了罗马尼亚选举的整个事件，他们去年举行了总统选举，结果被取消了。现在，罗马尼亚，在我进行那次会面时，正在准备新的总统选举，保守派候选人不是法国政府支持的人，所以他们问我是否愿意关闭或准备关闭 Telegram 上支持保守派候选人或抗议亲欧候选人的频道，所以他们称他们喜欢的那个人为亲欧的。
Pavel Durov (01:13:16) So, when I got stuck in France unable to leave the country for a few months, I was offered to meet the head of state foreign intelligence services through a person I know quite well, he’s actually a well-known tech entrepreneur in France and he’s well-connected and he said, “This guy wants to meet you.” I said, “Okay, fine, let’s do that but I’m not promising anything.” I took the meeting and, in this meeting, I was asked to restrict what I see as restriction of freedom of speech in Romania. I don’t know if you followed the whole saga with the Romanian elections, they had a presidential elections last year, the results got canceled. Now, Romania, at that point when I had this meeting, was preparing for a new presidential elections, the conservative candidate was not somebody who the French government was supportive of so they asked me whether I would be shutting down or ready to shut down channels on Telegram. Let’s support the conservative candidate or protest against the pro-European candidates so they called the guy they liked.
(01:14:49) 我说：”听着，如果没有违反 Telegram 的规则——这些规则相当明确，你不能呼吁暴力。但如果是和平示威，如果是和平辩论，我们不能这样做，那将是政治审查。我们在世界上许多国家保护了言论自由，包括在亚洲、东欧和中东，我们不会开始在欧洲进行审查，无论谁要求我们。” 我对那个法国情报负责人说得非常清楚，我说：”如果你认为，因为我被困在这里，你就可以告诉我该做什么，那你就大错特错了。我宁愿每次都反其道而行之，” 而且在某种程度上我就是这么做的。我和他就这整件事的道德性进行了一场小辩论，然后，在某个时间点，就把这次谈话的全部内容公之于众，因为我从未签署过保密协议。我从不与任何那样的人签署保密协议，我希望能够告诉世界发生了什么。
(01:14:49) I said, “Look, if there is no violation of the rules of Telegram which are quite clear, you can’t call to violence. But if it’s a peaceful demonstration, if it’s a peaceful debate, we can’t do this, it would be political censorship. We protected freedom of speech in many countries in the world, put it in Asia and Eastern Europe and Middle East, we’re not going to start engaging in censorship in Europe no matter who is asking us.” I was very clear to the guy who was the head of French intelligence, I said, “If you think that, because I’m stuck here, you can tell me what to do, you are very wrong. I would rather do the opposite every time,” and in a way that’s what I did. I had a small debate with him about the morality of this whole thing and then, at a certain point, just disclose the content of this entire conversation because I never signed an NDA. I don’t ever sign NDAs with any people like that, I want to be able to tell the world what’s going on.
(01:16:12) 这让我相当震惊，法国政府里会有人试图利用这种情况。当然，如果他们与这项调查本身的启动无关，并且利用它来达到他们的政治或地缘政治目标，我认为这是企图 personally 羞辱我个人，并 collectively 羞辱数百万 Telegram 用户。而且相当奇怪的是，同一个机构也要求我们在摩尔多瓦做一些事情。所以，甚至在那之前，我想是去年十月或九月，我于八月底在巴黎被捕，然后再次通过中间人接洽，被问到：”你介意在摩尔多瓦删除一些频道吗？因为那里正在进行选举，我们担心这些选举会受到一些干扰。你能请联系摩尔多瓦政府的代表并处理一下吗？” 我们说：”我们很乐意看一看，看看那里是否有违反我们规则的内容。”
(01:16:12) And that’s quite shocking to me that you would have people in the French government trying to get advantage of this situation. Of course, if they had nothing to do with the start of this investigation itself and use it to reach their political or geopolitical goals, I consider it an attempt to humiliate myself personally and millions of Telegram users collectively. And it’s quite strange that the same agency asked us to do certain things in Moldova as well. So, even before that, I think it was October last year or September, I was arrested in Paris in late August and then again approached through an intermediary and asked, “Would you mind taking down some channels in Moldova because there is an election going on and we’re afraid there’re going to be some interference with these elections. Could you please connect with representatives of the government of Moldova and take care of it?” We said, “We’re happy to take a look at it and see if there is content there that is in violation of our rules.”
(01:17:50) 他们给我们发了一份频道和机器人的列表，其中一些是……所以，那是一份很短的列表，其中一些频道和机器人确实违反了我们的规则，我们删除了它们，只有少数几个，其余的没问题。然后他们说了谢谢，又给我们发了几十个频道的列表，很多很多频道。我们查看了这些频道，我们意识到没有充分的理由来证明封禁它们是合理的，我们拒绝这样做。但有趣的是，要求我们在摩尔多瓦这样做的法国情报部门，通过联系人让我知道，在 Telegram 封禁了摩尔多瓦少数几个违反我们规则的频道之后，他们与我的法官，也就是对我启动调查的调查法官谈了话，并向法官说了关于我的好事，我发现这非常令人困惑，而且在某种程度上，令人震惊，因为这两件事毫无共同之处。
(01:17:50) And they sent us a list of channels and bots, some of them were … So, it was a very short list and some of these channels and bots were in violation indeed of our rules and we took them down, only a few of them, the rest were okay. Then they said thank you and sent us another list of dozens of channels, many, many channels. We looked at these channels, we realized that there is no solid foundation to justify banning them and we refused to do that. But interestingly enough, the French intelligence services that were asking us to do this in Moldova, let me know through the contact that, after Telegram banned the few channels that were in violation of our rules in Moldova, they talked to my judge, the investigative judge in this investigation that has been started against me, and told the judge could things about me which I have found very confusing and, in a way, shocking because these two matters have nothing in common.
(01:19:27) 为什么有人会跟一个试图查明 Telegram 在删除法国非法内容方面是否做得足够好的调查法官谈话，摩尔多瓦跟这有什么关系？那一刻我变得非常怀疑。记住，这件事发生在我们封禁了少数几个违反我们规则的频道之后，但在我们拒绝封禁一长串其他完全没问题的频道之前，那些只是人们表达政治观点，我可能不同意，但他们有权表达。不是极端观点，不是呼吁暴力的观点。那是极其令人警觉的，那一刻我告诉自己，这里可能还有比我最初想象的更多的事情。最初我以为，是的，有些人对技术运作方式感到困惑，而在摩尔多瓦这件事之后，我变得怀疑得多。所以，等到情报部门负责人见我，要求关于罗马尼亚的事情，帮助他们压制罗马尼亚的保守派声音时，我已经对接下来可能发生的事情警惕了。
(01:19:27) Why would anyone talk to an investigative judge that is trying to find out whether Telegram did a good enough job in removing illegal content in France, what does Moldova have to do with it? I got very suspicious at that moment. Remember, it happened after we blocked a few channels that violated our rules but before we refused to block a long list of other channels that were completely fine which is people expressing political views which I may not agree with but it’s their right to express them. Not extreme views, not views that call to violence. That was extremely alarming, that was a moment when I told myself that there may be more going on here that I initially thought. Initially I thought, yeah, some people are confused about how technology works and, after this case in Moldova, I got much more suspicious. So, by the time the head of intelligence services met me to ask about Romania to help them silencing conservative voices in Romania, I was already wary of what can be going on next.
Lex Fridman (01:21:18) 是的。所以，很明显，这是一个系统性的企图，向你施压，要求你审查法国政府不同意的政治声音。我们应该说，你曾为左翼团体和右翼团体的言论自由而战，这真的不重要。所以，并不是说你没有政治立场、政治意识形态，你为之奋斗，你正在创建一个平台，只要他们不呼吁暴力，就允许来自各行各业、所有意识形态的人畅所欲言，这才是重点。而在罗马尼亚选举中，碰巧是保守派的声音是法国政府想要审查的，因为目前法国政府偏左。但如果你把一切都翻转过来，政府是右翼的，你也会为反对审查左翼声音而战，而且你过去已经做过很多次了。
Lex Fridman (01:21:18) Yeah. So, clearly, this was a systematic attempt to pressure you to censor political voices that the French government doesn’t agree with. And we should say that you have fought for freedom of speech for left-wing groups and right-wing groups, it really doesn’t matter. So, it’s not you don’t have a political affiliation, political ideology that you fight for, you’re creating a platform that, as long as they don’t call for violence, allows people from all walks of life, from all ideologies to speak their mind, that’s the whole point. And it happens to be conservative voices in the Romania election that the French government wanted to censor because, currently, the French government leans left. But if you flip everything around and the government would be right wing, you’d be fighting against censorship of left-wing voices and you have in the past many times.
Pavel Durov (01:22:13) 完全正确。讽刺的是，我们收到了法国警方要求删除 Telegram 上一个法国极左抗议者频道的请求。我们拒绝这样做。我们查看了那个频道，是和平抗议者。对我们来说，我们是在捍卫偏右还是偏左人士的言论自由，这并不重要。在 COVID 期间，我们保护了组织”黑人的命也是命”活动的活动人士，也保护了另一边的反封锁抗议者。我们保护每一个人，只要他们不越界，不开始呼吁暴力或煽动破坏公共财产。集会是一项基本权利。有趣的是，那些没有在不自由国家生活过经历的人，并不总是意识到逐渐妥协你的价值观、原则、自由、权利是多么危险，因为他们不明白利害关系是什么。
Pavel Durov (01:22:13) Exactly. Ironically, we received a request from the French police to take down a channel of far left protesters on Telegram in France. We refused to do that. We looked at the channel, peaceful protesters. It doesn’t matter for us whether we are defending the freedom of speech of people leaning right or leaning left. During COVID, we were protecting activists that were organizing the Black Lives Matter events and the other side, the protesters against lockdowns. We protect everybody as long as they are not crossing the lines and not starting to call to violence or incite damage to public property. It’s a fundamental right to assemble. It’s interesting that people who haven’t had this experience of living in countries that don’t have freedoms don’t always realize how dangerous it is to gradually compromise your values, your principles, your freedoms, your rights because they don’t understand what’s at stake.
权力与腐败
Power and corruption
Lex Fridman (01:23:56) 是的，这些事情会变成一个滑坡。所以，你很多很多年，包括现在，都高度赞扬法国，你热爱法国历史，法国文化。我认为这种情况，这个历史上犯下的错误，简单地说，对法国来说只是一个巨大的公关错误。没有任何有抱负成为下一个 Pavel Durov、创造下一个 Telegram 的企业家，在看到这一切之后，还想在法国运营。这次逮捕没有任何正当理由，是法律的误用，各种压力，各种似乎出于政治动机的行为，所有那种事情，所有过度的监管和官僚主义，对于梦想创造对世界有影响和积极意义的东西的企业家来说是一场噩梦。
Lex Fridman (01:23:56) Yeah, these things become a slippery slope. So, you’ve, for many, many years, including currently, have spoken very highly of France, you love French history, French culture. I think this situation, this historic wrong that’s been done is, put simply, is just a gigantic PR mistake for France. There’s no entrepreneur that sees, that aspires to be the next Pavel Durov to create the next Telegram, sees this and wants to operate in France after seeing this. There is no justification for this arrest, there’s a misapplication of the law, all kinds of pressures, all kinds of behavior that seems politically motivated, all that kind of stuff, all the excessive regulation and the bureaucracy, a nightmare for entrepreneurs that dream to create something impactful and positive for the world.
(01:24:50) 那么，你认为法国政府、法国体系需要修复什么？然后，放大来看，因为你在欧洲也看到类似的事情，有什么可以促使企业家发展，可以扭转我们在欧洲似乎看到的、对企业家越来越不友好的趋势？什么可以被修复？应该修复什么？
(01:24:50) So, what do you think needs to be fixed about the French government, the French system and then, zooming out, because you see similar kinds of things in Europe, that could enable entrepreneurs, that could reverse the trend that we seem to be seeing in Europe that is becoming less and less friendly to entrepreneurs? What can be fixed? What should be fixed?
Pavel Durov (01:25:20) 我认为欧洲社会必须决定他们希望其不断增长的公共部门停止增长的位置，他们认为政府的合适规模应该是多大。因为今天，如果你以法国为例，这是一个拥有大量人才的美好国家，但公共支出占该国 GDP 的 58%，这 maybe 比苏联最后阶段还要多。所以，你存在这种不平衡，代表国家的人远远多于试图通过创造伟大产品和伟大公司来推动国家经济发展的人。
Pavel Durov (01:25:20) I think the European society must decide where they want their ever-increasing public sector to stop increasing, what they think should be the right size of government. Because today, if you take France for example which is a beautiful country with a lot of talented people, but public expenses are 58% of the country’s GDP, it’s maybe as much more than in the latest stage of the Soviet Union. So, you have this disbalance where you have many more people representing the state as opposed to people trying to bring the country’s economy forward by creating great products and great companies.
(01:26:26) 初创领域和我所在的领域，社交媒体领域，受到了巨大的影响。过去 10 年里，法国在这个领域有一家伟大的初创公司，是一个基于位置的社交网络，最终卖给了 Snapchat。但在它被出售之前，创始人问我他是否应该卖掉，我告诉他：”永远不要卖。你正在做一件伟大的事情。你拥有大量用户，在许多国家都有有机增长，这是法国首个此类成功故事。” 但几周后他还是卖掉了。
(01:26:26) The start-up field and my field, social media field has been affected by it immensely. There was one great start-up in this realm in France in the last 10 years, it was this location-based social network, it was eventually sold to Snapchat. But before it was sold, the founder asked me whether he should sell, I told him, “Never sell. You have a great thing going. You have lots of users, you have organic traction in many countries and the first of this kind of success story in France.” But then he sold anyway in a couple of weeks.
(01:27:12) 后来我遇见了他，他现在正尝试做新的事情，我遇见他时问他，我试图理解哪里出了问题，他告诉我的一件事是，当他试图经营他的公司，与 Facebook、Instagram、Snapchat 竞争，承受来自投资者的所有压力，试图雇佣最优秀的人并说服他们去巴黎时——顺便说一句，他做得很好——但当他努力做这些的时候，他也受到了一些愚蠢调查的攻击， again，涉及数据保护问题，这些调查持续了很长时间，逐渐吸干了他的团队和公司的血液，不断的审讯、披露请求。
(01:27:12) And later I met him, he’s trying to do a new thing now, I met him and I asked him, I was trying to understand what went wrong and one of the things he told me about is that, while he was trying to run his company, competing with Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, having all this pressure from investors, trying to hire the best people and persuade them to go to Paris, and he did a great job by the way, but while he was trying to do that, he got also attacked by some silly investigation, again, involving the data protection issues which lasted forever and was gradually sucking blood of his team and his company, constant interrogations, disclosure requests.
(01:28:14) 而这是一家年轻的公司，这显著增加了压力水平，在某个时刻，我认为压力太大了，他决定，again，干脆卖掉它。最终结果证明没有问题，据我了解，调查以没有指控结束，但是，这样的调查是有代价的，有成本的。
(01:28:14) And this is a young company, it significantly increases the level of stress and, at some point, I think the pressure was too much, he decided to, again, just sell it. Eventually it turned out that there was no issue, the investigation ended as far as I understand with no charges but, such investigations, they have a price, they have a cost.
(01:28:45) 除非社会意识到那些从未被创建、或者在非常早期就卖给美国或其他国家、导致经济增长放缓的项目、公司、初创公司的成本，否则事情不会改变。我想我们几天前刚和一个家伙谈过，他离开了法国，在迪拜创业，他不得不离开法国的原因之一是政府开始调查他的公司，并冻结了他的银行账户，这项涉及税收的调查持续了很多很多年，我相信他说是八年。
(01:28:45) And unless the society realizes the cost of projects, of companies, of start-ups that are never created or sold to the United States at the very early stage or other countries resulting in decreased economic growth, things won’t change. I think we just talked to a guy a few days ago who left France and started a business here in Dubai and one of the reasons he had to leave France is that the government started an investigation on his company and they frozen his bank accounts and this investigation that involved taxes lasted for many, many years, I believe he said eight years.
(01:29:36) 在这八年结束时，政府得出结论，没有任何问题，他很好，没事。与此同时，他的公司银行账户被冻结，他的业务死了。他之所以能够保持理智，唯一的原因是他搬到了迪拜，开了一家新公司，这家公司非常成功，现在他正用他伟大的想法和创造力丰富着我们所在的这个城市。
(01:29:36) And at the end of this eight years, the government reached to the conclusion that there was nothing wrong, he’s good, it’s okay. In the meantime, his corporate bank accounts were frozen, his business died. The only reason why he was able to retain sanity is because he moved to Dubai and started a new company which is incredibly successful and now he’s enriching this city which we’re in right now with his great ideas and creativity.
Lex Fridman (01:30:17) 顺便说一下，与他接触过，他眼里有火，那种推动创业精神的人类精神。不管那是什么，他不必这么做，他已经赚了很多钱。他可能什么都不用做，但他仍然想要创造，那火焰正是滋养伟大国家的东西。建设，建设，建设，建设新东西，扩张，所有这一切，而监管窒息了这些。
Lex Fridman (01:30:17) And by the way, having interacted with him, there’s a fire in his eyes, the human spirit that fuels entrepreneurship. Whatever that is, he doesn’t have to do it, he’s made a lot of money. He probably doesn’t have to do anything but he still wants to create and that fires what fuels great nations. Build, build, build, build new stuff, expand, all of that and regulation suffocates that.
Pavel Durov (01:30:40) 你必须珍惜这些人。
Pavel Durov (01:30:40) You have to cherish this people.
Lex Fridman (01:30:41) 是的。
Lex Fridman (01:30:41) Yeah.
Pavel Durov (01:30:42) 但我想法国公众或部分法国公众被误导了，我不知道从什么时候开始，也许从法国大革命时代起，就认为企业家 somehow 是他们的敌人。他们是邪恶的富人，是所有问题的根源，仿佛只要你能让富人把他们非法获得的财富与其余人口分享，那么所有问题都会神奇地解决。然而在现实中，很多这样眼里有火、创办这类公司的人，正在牺牲他们的生活、他们的生计。
Pavel Durov (01:30:42) But I guess the French public or some part of the French public was misled and I don’t know when, perhaps since the time of the French Revolution, to believe that entrepreneurs are somehow their enemies. They’re the evil rich people that are the cause of all problems as if only you could make the rich share their ill-gotten wealth with the rest of the population then every problem will be magically solved. In reality though, a lot of these people that are starting such companies with fire in their eyes are sacrificing their lives, their livelihood.
(01:31:27) 他们每天工作 20 小时，承受着巨大的压力，以实现愿景，为他们周围的社会带来价值和好处。他们创造就业，创造伟大的服务，创造伟大的商品，他们让你的国家增长，让你的人民感到自豪，你必须珍惜他们。但体制对他们做了什么？它把他们挤走了，因为也许税务当局里有人决定推进自己的职业生涯，也许太野心勃勃而不够聪明，结果，一家公司被摧毁了。
(01:31:27) They’re working 20 hours a day, they’re experiencing immense stress in order to fulfill the vision and bring value and good to the society around them. They create jobs, they create great services, they create great goods, they make your country grow, they make your people proud, you have to cherish them. But what does the system do to them? It squeezes them out because perhaps there was somebody in the tax authority that decided to advance their career and perhaps was too ambitious and not too smart so, as a result, a company was destroyed.
(01:32:17) 而现在，顺便说一下，我们谈论的同一个企业家，被邀请回到法国。他们向他提供了非常好的条件，他说他们将在香榭丽舍大街开设这个新场所，我们会给你最好的位置，我们会资助一部分，还有税收减免，他说：”绝不。忘了这个吧，不可能。我不会回法国。” 他对这段经历有心理创伤，他是法国人，他在那里出生，他持有法国护照。所以，除非这样的事情发生变化，否则法国和欧洲其他地区将继续与经济停滞、预算赤字、失业以及所有其他相关的社会和经济指标作斗争。
(01:32:17) And now the same entrepreneur, by the way, who we talked to is invited to come back to France. He’s been offered really good terms, he said they’re going to open this new venue on Champs-Élysées, we’re going to give you the best location, we’re going to fund part of it, tax breaks and he said, “Never. Just forget about this, it’s impossible. I’m not coming back to France.” He’s traumatized by the experience and he’s French, he was born there, he has a French passport. So, unless things like this change, France and the rest of Europe will keep struggling with economic growth, with budget deficits, with unemployment and all the other relevant social and economic metrics.
Lex Fridman (01:33:06) 是的，这令人心碎。这些国家中的许多，我欣赏其历史和文化的价值，我希望欧洲和法国繁荣，但这不是繁荣所需的要素。快速暂停一下，我需要去下洗手间。
Lex Fridman (01:33:06) Yeah, it’s heartbreaking. Many of these nations, I appreciate the historic and the culture of value and I hope Europe and France flourish but this is not the components that are required for flourishing. Quick pause, I need a bathroom break.
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Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part1
书童按：本篇是帕维尔·杜罗夫（Pavel Durov）于2025年10月接受Lex Fridman的播客采访实录，Pavel是端到端加密通信软件Telegram的创始人兼CEO。其采访中涉及死亡、自由、极度自律、严格饮食和锻炼、斯多葛式生活等观点，精彩绝伦，令人击节称赞。初稿采用AI机器翻译，经自动化中英混排，书童仅做简单校对及批注。原稿中英文混排近7万字，书童将分为Part1-4发出，以飨诸君。
**帕维尔·杜罗夫：Telegram、自由、审查、金钱、权力与人性 莱克斯·弗里德曼播客** **Pavel Durov: Telegram, Freedom, Censorship, Money, Power & Human Nature Lex Fridman Podcast** 介绍
Introduction
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:00:00) 以下是与帕维尔·杜罗夫的对话，他是即时通讯平台Telegram的创始人兼CEO，该平台活跃用户超过10亿。帕维尔一生都在为言论自由而战，构建保护人类通信免受监视和审查的工具。为此，他面临过来自地球上一些最强大的政府和组织的压力。面对这些巨大的压力，他始终坚守立场，持续为保护用户隐私和我们所有人类彼此沟通的自由而战。我有机会与他共度了几周时间，可以肯定地说，他是我见过的最有原则和最无畏的人之一。另外，当我发帖说我正和帕维尔在一起时，很多人，他的粉丝，写信问我，他是否真的私下过着众所周知的那种纪律严明的苦行生活：不喝酒，斯多葛心态，严格的饮食和锻炼，包括每天疯狂数量的引体向上和俯卧撑。没有手机，除了偶尔测试Telegram功能，等等这些。
Lex Fridman (00:00:00) The following is a conversation with Pavel Durov, Founder and CEO of Telegram, a messaging platform actively used by over 1 billion people. Pavel has spent his life fighting for freedom of speech, building tools that protect human communication from surveillance and censorship. For this, he has faced pressure from some of the most powerful governments and organizations on earth. In the face of this immense pressure, he has always held his ground, continuously fighting to protect user privacy and the freedom of all of us humans to communicate with each other. I got the chance to spend a few weeks with him and can definitively say that he’s one of the most principled and fearless humans I’ve ever met. Plus, when I posted that I’m hanging out with Pavel, a lot of people, fans of his, wrote to me asking if he does, in fact, privately live the disciplined ascetic life he’s known for. No alcohol, stoic mindset, strict diet and exercise, including a crazy amount of daily pull-ups and push-ups. No phone, except to occasionally test Telegram features, and so on.
(00:01:12) 是的，他百分之百就是那样的人，这让我与他共处的经历真的非常鼓舞人心。我对此心怀感激，也很感激现在能称他为朋友。这次播客对话部分是关于哲学的，关于自由、生活、人性以及政府官僚机构的本质。它部分也超级技术性，因为对我来说，Telegram拥有一个相对较小的工程团队，却基本上能够以惊人的速度推出新的、独特的功能，从而在所有竞争对手中实现创新领先。就像《辛普森一家》的那个梗”他们先做的”一样，当你考虑我们通信应用中所有我们熟知和喜爱的功能时，几乎在每种情况下，都是Telegram先做的。所以我们讨论了所有内容，从他在法国所面临的那种卡夫卡式的处境，到他生活和职业生涯的过山车般经历，再到他关于技术、自由和人类境况的哲学。
(00:01:12) Yes, he’s 100% that guy, which made the experience of hanging out with him really inspiring to me. I’m grateful for it and I’m grateful to now be able to call him a friend. This podcast conversation is in parts philosophical, about freedom, life, human nature, and the nature of government bureaucracies. And it is also in parts super technical because to me, it’s fascinating that Telegram has a relatively small engineering team and yet is able to basically out-innovate all of its competitors with an insane rate of introducing new, unique features. Just like the meme of the Simpsons did it first, when you consider all the features we know and love in our communication apps, in almost every case, Telegram did it first. So we discuss it all, from the Kafkaesque situation he’s in the midst of France, to the roller coaster of his life and career, to his philosophy on technology, freedom, and the human condition.
(00:02:15) 顺便说一下，虽然整个对话是英文的，但我们将提供多种语言的字幕和配音音轨，包括俄语、乌克兰语、法语和印地语。在YouTube上，你可以通过点击设置齿轮图标，然后点击音轨，再选择你偏好的语言来切换不同语言的音轨。再次衷心感谢ElevenLabs在翻译和配音方面提供的帮助，以及他们在打破语言所造成的障碍这一更大使命上的贡献。他们确实是我有幸合作过的最卓越的公司之一。这里是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客，要支持我们，请查看描述中的赞助商信息。现在，亲爱的朋友们，有请帕维尔·杜罗夫。
(00:02:15) And by the way, while this entire conversation is in English, we’ll make captions and voiceover audio tracks available in multiple languages, including Russian, Ukrainian, French, and Hindi. On YouTube, you can switch between language audio tracks by clicking the settings gear icon, then clicking audio track, and then selecting the language you prefer. Huge thank you once again to ElevenLabs for their help with translation and dubbing, and with the bigger mission of breaking down barriers that language creates. They are truly one of the most remarkable companies I’ve ever had the pleasure of working with. This is the Lex Fridman podcast, to support it please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Pavel Durov.
自由哲学
Philosophy of freedom
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:03:07) 你多年来一直是自由的倡导者，写道你应该准备好为自由冒一切风险。有哪些影响和见解帮助你形成了这种对人类自由的价值观？
Lex Fridman (00:03:07) You’ve been an advocate for freedom for many years, writing that you should be ready to risk everything for freedom. What were some influences and insights that help you arrive at this value of human freedom?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:03:21) 我在生命早期就体验到了有自由的社会和没有自由的社会的区别。我四岁时，我的家人从苏联搬到了意大利北部，我可以看到，一个没有自由的社会无法享受丰富的意见、想法、商品和服务。即使对于一个四五岁的孩子来说，这也是显而易见的。在苏联，你无法接触到在意大利能接触到的所有玩具、各种冰淇淋、卡通片。然后我意识到了一些更重要的事情。没有自由，你就无法为这种丰富性做出贡献。在这一点上，对我来说已经非常明显了。
Pavel Durov (00:03:21) I get to experience the difference between a society with freedom and a society without freedom pretty early in life. I was four years old when my family moved from the Soviet Union to northern Italy, and I could see that a society without freedom cannot enjoy the abundance of opinions, of ideas, of goods and services. Even for a four or five-year-old kid, it was obvious. You can’t experience all the toys, the ice cream of sorts, the cartoons in the Soviet Union that you can access in Italy. And then I got to realize something even more important. You don’t get to contribute to this abundance without freedom. And at this point it was pretty obvious to me.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:04:14) 你还写过”Свобода дороже денег”。翻译过来是，”自由比金钱更重要。” 你如何防止这些对自由的价值观被金钱、有影响力的人、有权势的人所腐蚀？
Lex Fridman (00:04:14) You also wrote “Свобода дороже денег”. It translates to, “Freedom matters more than money.” How do you prevent these values for freedom, being corrupted by money, by people with influence, by people with power?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:04:29) 嗯，自由最大的敌人是恐惧和贪婪，所以你要确保它们不挡你的路。如果你想象一下可能发生在你身上最糟糕的事情，然后让自己坦然接受它，那就没有什么好害怕的了。所以你坚守立场，并记住，按照你所信仰的原则生活是值得的，即使这样的生命可能比活在奴役中的更长生命要短暂。
Pavel Durov (00:04:29) Well, the biggest enemies of freedom are fear and greed, so you make sure that they don’t stand in your way. If you imagine the worst thing that can happen to you and then make yourself be comfortable with it, there is nothing more left to be afraid of. So you stand your ground and you remember that it’s worth living your life according to the principles that you believe in, even though this life can end up being shorter than a longer life, but lived in slavery.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:05:08) 你思考过自己的 mortality 吗？你想到过死亡吗？
Lex Fridman (00:05:08) Do you contemplate your mortality? You think about your death?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:05:12) 哦，是的。
Pavel Durov (00:05:12) Oh yes.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:05:13) 你害怕它吗？
Lex Fridman (00:05:13) Are you afraid of it?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:05:14) 在某种程度上，你必须违背自我保存的本能，这并不容易。我们都是生物体，天生就害怕死亡。没有人想死，但当你理性地看待它时，你活着，然后你死去。在你的生命中，并不存在你的死亡这件事。一旦你死了，你就停止体验生命。所以你必须问自己这个问题，是值得活在充满对死亡的恐惧中，还是忘记这一点，以一种让你对这种恐惧免疫的方式生活更令人愉悦？同时也要记住死亡是存在的，这样每一天都会算数。
Pavel Durov (00:05:14) In a way, you have to go against your instinct of self-preservation, and it’s not easy. We are all biological beings, hard-coded to be afraid of death. Nobody wants to die, but when you approach it rationally, you live and then you die. There’s no such thing as your death in your life. You stop experiencing life once you die. So you have to ask yourself this question, is it worth living a life full of fear of death, or it’s much more enjoyable to forget about this and live your life in a way that makes you immune to this fear? At the same time remembering that death exists, so that every day would count.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:06:03) 是的，记住死亡的存在让你深深地感受到你确实拥有的每一个时刻。
Lex Fridman (00:06:03) Yeah, remembering that death exists makes you deeply feel every moment that you do get.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:06:11) 这就是为什么我喜欢提醒自己我可能在任何一天死去。
Pavel Durov (00:06:11) That’s why I love reminding myself that I can die any day.
不喝酒
No alcohol
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:06:15) 在很多方面，你过着一种相当斯多葛式的生活。我有机会和你共处了几周。在很多方面，你寻求最小化外部世界对你思想的负面影响。你曾写道，”如果你想充分发挥潜力并保持头脑清晰，请远离成瘾物质。我的成功和健康是20多年完全戒除酒精、烟草、咖啡、药片和非法毒品的结果。短期的快乐不值得你付出未来。” 我们来谈谈这其中每一项。酒精。你对此背后的哲学是什么？
Lex Fridman (00:06:15) In many ways you live a pretty stoic existence. I got a chance to spend a couple of weeks with you. In many ways, you seek to minimize the negative effects of the outside world on your mind. You’ve written, quote, “If you want to reach your full potential and maintain clarity of mind, stay away from addictive substances. My success and health are the result of 20 plus years of complete abstinence from alcohol, tobacco, coffee, pills, and illegal drugs. Short-term pleasure isn’t worth your future.” Let’s talk about each one of these. Alcohol. What’s been your philosophy behind that?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:06:57) 这个相当简单。当我11岁时，我的生物化学老师，他给了我一本他写的书，书名叫《天堂的幻觉》，他在书中描述了当你摄入这种或那种物质后，你体内发生的生物和化学过程。它主要涉及非法药物，但酒精也是他涵盖的成瘾物质之一。所以事实证明，当你喝酒时，发生的事情是你的脑细胞变得麻痹。它们真的变成了僵尸。然后第二天，聚会结束后某个时候，你的一些脑细胞会死亡，再也无法恢复正常。所以想想看。如果你的大脑是你在通往成功和幸福旅程中拥有的最宝贵工具，你为什么要为了短期快乐而摧毁这个工具呢？这听起来很荒谬。
Pavel Durov (00:06:57) That one is quite easy. When I was 11 years old, my biochemistry teacher, he gave me this book he wrote, it was called The Illusion of Paradise, and there he would describe the biological and chemical processes that happen in your body once you consume this or that substance. It was mainly related to illegal drugs, but alcohol was one of these addictive substances that he covered. So it turns out that when you drink alcohol, the thing that happens is that your brain cells become paralyzed. They become literally zombies. And then next day, sometime after the party is over, some of your brain cells die and never get to normal. So think about this. If your brain is this most valuable tool you have in your journey to success and happiness, why would you destroy this tool for short-term pleasure? This sounds ridiculous.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:08:06) 是的，在很多方面，它是一种我们让进入身体的毒药。但是，作为建议，对于那些考虑不喝酒的人，你会给他们什么建议？很多人使用酒精来使他们能够拥有充满活力的社交生活。在聚会上，来自社会的压力很大，要他们喝酒以便社交。所以你会给他们什么建议，给那些想象没有酒精的社交生活的人？
Lex Fridman (00:08:06) Yeah, in many ways it’s a poison we’re letting in our body. But by way of advice, what advice would you give to people who consider not drinking? A lot of people use alcohol to enable them to have a vibrant social life. There’s a lot of pressure from society at a party to drink so they can socialize. So what advice would you give to them, to people who imagine having a social life without alcohol?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:08:37) 嗯，首先，不要害怕逆向而行。设定你自己的规则。其次，如果你觉得需要喝酒，那一定是你试图掩盖某个问题。有某个恐惧你还没有准备好面对，你必须解决这个恐惧。如果有一个你害怕接近的漂亮女孩，消除这种恐惧，去接近她，练习。一次又一次地做，这很老套，但这个建议有效。
Pavel Durov (00:08:37) Well, first of all, don’t be afraid to be contrarian. Set your own rules. Secondly, if you feel you need to drink, there must be some problem you’re trying to conceal. There’s some theory you’re not ready to confront, and you have to address this fear. If there is a good-looking girl you’re afraid to approach, get rid of this fear, approach her, practice. Do it again and again, it’s pretty banal, but this advice works.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:09:11) 解决根本问题，这通常在最底层，总是恐惧。在这方面努力。
Lex Fridman (00:09:11) Fix the underlying problem, which is usually at the very bottom, is always going to be fear. Work on that.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:09:17) 而且很多时候，人们试图用酒精逃避他们生活中的某些东西。他们试图逃避什么？是什么问题？你必须追根究底。你的思想试图告诉你一些有价值的东西，而你非但没有直接解决它，反而用酒精淹没它，酒精是一种精神止痛药，但只能暂时起作用，然后你必须连本带利地偿还。
Pavel Durov (00:09:17) And very often people are trying to escape something in their lives with alcohol. What is it they’re trying to escape? What is this problem? You have to get to the bottom of it. Your mind is trying to tell you something valuable, and instead of addressing it directly, you are flooding it in alcohol, which is a spiritual painkiller, but works only temporarily and then you have to pay the debt with interest.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:09:51) 那你怎么做？我的意思是，你参加过很多聚会，很多派对。说”不”有什么挑战吗？
Lex Fridman (00:09:51) So what do you do? I mean, you’ve been in a lot of gatherings, a lot of parties. Is there some challenges to saying no?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:09:58) 对我来说，完全没有。当我感觉某事不对时，我总是准备好坚持立场并说不。而且，我们人类是多么容易受到我们认为是多数意见的影响，这是非同寻常的。因为自远古时代，自百万年前起，没有人想被部落排斥。我们害怕我们不再被接受，这在数千百万年前意味着我们会饿死。所以我们必须有意识地对抗这种倾向于同意多数人强加给你的一切的倾向，因为很明显，多数人参与的许多事情、许多活动并不会给你带来任何好处。
Pavel Durov (00:09:58) For me, not at all. I’ve been always ready to stand my ground and say no when I feel something’s not right. And it’s extraordinary how easily we humans are affected by what we perceive as a majority. Because nobody since ancient times, since million years ago wants to be left out by the tribe. We are scared that we won’t become accepted anymore, which thousands of millions of years ago meant we’re going to starve to death. So we have to consciously fight this inclination to be agreeable with everything that the majority imposes on you because it’s quite clear that many things that the majority, many activities the majority is engaging in are not bringing you any good.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:11:03) 所以那是另一个你必须面对的恐惧，去参加一个派对，以及害怕在那个派对上成为被排斥者，害怕在那个派对上、在那个社交聚会上与他人不同。在人群中，要与众不同。那是一种恐惧。
Lex Fridman (00:11:03) So that’s another fear you have to face, going into a party and the fear of being the outcast at that party, of being different than others at that party, at that social gathering. In the crowd of humans, be different. That’s a fear.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:11:17) 那是一种恐惧。如果你仔细想想，这是相当非理性的。这在20,000年前很有意义。但在今天毫无意义，因为如果你想想，如果你做周围其他每个人都在做的事情，你没有任何竞争优势，你也无法在你生命的某个时刻变得出众。
Pavel Durov (00:11:17) That’s a fear. And it’s quite irrational if you think about it. It was something that made a lot of sense 20,000 years ago. It makes zero sense today because if you think about it, if you do the same thing everybody else around you is doing, you don’t have any competitive advantage and you don’t get to become outstanding at some point in your life.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:11:45) 是的，这是我们谈到的建议之一，如果你想在生活中成功，你就要与众不同。
Lex Fridman (00:11:45) Yeah, that’s one of the things we talked about by way of advice is, if you want to be successful in life, you want to be different.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:11:55) 当然。
Pavel Durov (00:11:55) Definitely.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:11:56) 也许，我想你说过你想在一个细分领域达到精通。所以找到一个你可以全力以赴并达到精通的细分领域，并且这个细分领域与任何其他人正在做的任何事情都不同。你能再解释一下吗？
Lex Fridman (00:11:56) And perhaps, I think you said you want to achieve mastery at a niche. So find a niche at which you can pursue with all your effort and achieve mastery, and the niche being different than anything that anybody else is doing. Can you explain that a little bit more?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:12:13) 所以很明显，为了对你所在的社会、对你所居住国家的经济做出贡献，你必须做一些有价值的事情。但如果你在做其他每个人都在做的事情，那它的价值是什么？现在说起来比做起来容易，去做别人没做过的事，因为我们人类被各种信息包围，这使我们想要复制我们感知到的东西。同时，有那么多你可以探索的领域，它们与你日常接收到的信息毫无关系。所以，精心筛选你的信息来源是极其重要的，这样你就不会成为受基于人工智能的算法信息流摆布的人，它告诉你什么是重要的，以至于你最终消费着与其他人相同的信息、相同的东西、相同的模因、相同的新闻。
Pavel Durov (00:12:13) So obviously in order to contribute to the society you’re in, to the economy of the country you live in, you have to do something that is valuable. But if you’re doing something that everybody else is doing anyway, what’s the value of it? Now it sounds easier than it is done, to do something that nobody else is doing, because we humans are surrounded by all kinds of information, which makes us want to copy what we’re perceiving. At the same time, there are so many areas which you can explore, that have nothing to do with the information you receive on the daily basis. So it’s extremely important to curate the information sources that you have, so that you wouldn’t be somebody who is left to the will of AI-based algorithmic feed telling you what’s important so that you end up consuming the same information, the same stuff, the same memes, the same news as everybody else.
(00:13:24) 相反，你应该积极主动。你应该有意识地设定一个目标，一个你想要探索的领域，然后主动搜索与这个领域相关的信息，这样有一天你就能成为这个领域的世界头号专家。这样做并不难。你只需要保持一致性，因为没有其他人试图这样做。其他每个人都只是在阅读相同的新闻，每天讨论相同的新闻。但这样他们无法获得竞争优势。
(00:13:24) But rather you should be proactive. You should deliberately try to set a goal, an area that you want to explore, and then actively search information that is relevant to this field, so that one day you can become the world’s number one expert in this field. And it’s not that difficult to do that. You have to just remain consistent because nobody else is trying to do that. Everybody else is just reading the same news and discussing the same news every day. But this way they don’t get to have a competitive advantage.
不用手机
No phone
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:14:08) 是的，大多数人口成为人工智能驱动的推荐系统的奴隶，所以每个人被喂食的内容是相同的，我们都变得一样。关于这一点，你做的其中一件不同的事情是，你不使用手机，除了偶尔测试Telegram功能，但我和你在一起两周了，我从未见过你以大多数人使用手机的方式使用手机，比如用于他们的社交媒体。那么你能描述一下你背后的哲学吗？
Lex Fridman (00:14:08) Yeah, majority of the population becomes slaves to the AI-driven recommender systems, and so the content everybody’s fed is the same thing and we all become the same. On that point, one of the different things you do is, you don’t use a phone except occasionally to test Telegram features, but I’ve been with you for two weeks, I haven’t seen you use a phone at all in the way that most people use a phone, like for their social media. So can you describe your philosophy behind that?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:14:40) 我不认为手机是必要的设备。我记得我成长过程中没有手机。当我上大学时，我没有手机。当我最终开始使用手机时，我从不使用电话功能。我总是开着飞行模式或静音。我讨厌被打扰的想法。我这里的哲学很简单，我想定义我生活中什么是重要的。我不想要其他人或公司，各种组织告诉我今天什么是重要的，我应该思考什么。只需设定你自己的议程，而手机会妨碍你。
Pavel Durov (00:14:40) I don’t think a phone is a necessary device. I remember growing up, I didn’t have a mobile phone. When I was a student at the university, I didn’t have a mobile phone. When I finally got to use a mobile phone, I never used phone calls. I was always in airplane mode or mute. I hated the idea of being disturbed. My philosophy here is pretty simple, I want to define what is important in my life. I don’t want other people or companies, all kinds of organizations telling me what is important today, and what I should be thinking about. Just set up your own agenda and the phone gets in your way.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:15:40) 它提供干扰，它引导你应该看什么，你将会看什么。所以你不想要那样。你想让头脑安静下来。你想选择让什么样的东西进入你的头脑。
Lex Fridman (00:15:40) It provides distractions, it guides what you should be looking at, what you will be looking at. So you don’t want that. You want to quiet the mind. You want to choose what kind of stuff you let inside your mind.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:15:55) 是的，因为这样我可以为社会进步做出贡献。或者至少我喜欢这样想，这让我更快乐。
Pavel Durov (00:15:55) Yes, because this way I can contribute to the progress of society. Or at least I like to think this way and this makes me happier.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:16:03) 你多久能找到安静的时间，只是思考和专注于工作，没有任何干扰？你向我提到过你重视安静的早晨。
Lex Fridman (00:16:03) How often do you find quiet time to just think and focus deeply on work without any distractions? You mentioned to me that you value quiet mornings.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:16:13) 是的。所以我尝试做的事情是，我尽量分配尽可能多的时间用于睡眠。现在，即使我分配了比如11或12小时用于睡眠，我也不会睡11或12小时。所以我最终做的是，我最终躺在床上思考。有些人不喜欢这样。他们说，”嗯，你得吃安眠药，”但我从不吃药。我喜欢这些时刻。我得到了很多绝妙的想法，或者至少在当时它们对我来说似乎很绝妙，当我躺在床上时，无论是在深夜还是在清晨。那是我一天中最喜欢的时间。有时我醒来，去洗个澡，仍然不用手机。
Pavel Durov (00:16:13) Yes. So the thing I’m trying to do, I try to allocate as much time as possible for sleep. Now, even if I allocate say 11 or 12 hours for sleep, I won’t sleep for 11 or 12 hours. So what I end up doing is, I end up lying in bed thinking. And some people hate it. They say, “Well, you have to take a sleeping pill,” but I never take pills. I love these moments. I get so many brilliant ideas, or at least they seem brilliant to me at the moment, while I’m lying in bed, either late in the evening or early in the morning. That’s my favorite time of the day. Sometimes I wake up, I go take a shower, still without a phone.
(00:17:03) 美好的想法可以在你做晨练、进行早晨常规活动而不用手机时来到你身边。如果你早上第一件事就是打开手机，你最终会变成一个被告知在一天剩下的时间里该思考什么的生物。在某种程度上，如果你深夜一直在消费社交媒体的新闻，情况也是一样。但那样的话，你如何定义什么是重要的，以及你真正想成为什么样的人呢？现在，我不是说你必须完全远离所有信息来源，但要花些时间思考什么对你真正重要，以及你想在这个世界上改变什么。
(00:17:03) Beautiful ideas can come to you while you’re doing your morning exercise, your morning routine without a phone. If you open your phone first thing in the morning, what you end up being is a creature that is told what to think about for the rest of the day. Same is true in a way if you’ve been consuming news from social media late at night. But then how do you define what is important and what you really want to become in life? Now, I’m not saying you have to completely stay away from all sources of information, but take some time to think about what’s really important for you and what you want to change in this world.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:17:51) 所以你肯定试图在早上尽可能多地避免使用电子设备，只是为了有安静的思考时间，再加上疯狂数量的俯卧撑和深蹲？
Lex Fridman (00:17:51) So you definitely try to avoid digital devices for as many hours as possible in the morning, just to have the quiet thinking time, plus the crazy amounts of push-ups and squats?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:18:02) 我知道这有违直觉，因为我创立了世界上最大的社交网络之一，之后又创立了世界第二大通讯应用。按理说你应该真的保持连接，但你很早就得出的结论是，你连接得越多、越容易联系到，你的效率就越低。然后，如果你不断地被各种信息轰炸，其中大部分与你试图构建的事业的成功无关，你又如何能运营这个东西呢？整个世界可能着迷于世界上最富有的人和世界上最有权势的人之间的争吵、争执。但对于绝大多数关注这个传奇故事的人来说，这是无关紧要的。它不会改变他们的生活，而且无论如何，他们无法影响它，所以有点毫无意义。当然，有些人从事的活动要求他们了解正在发生的一切，但99%的人不是。
Pavel Durov (00:18:02) I know it’s counterintuitive because I founded one of the largest social networks in the world, after which I founded the second-largest messaging app in the world. And you’re supposed to be really connected, but the conclusion you reach very early is that the more connected and accessible you are, the less productive you are. And then how can you run this thing if you’re constantly bombarded by all kinds of information, most of which is irrelevant to the success of what you’re trying to build? The entire world can be fascinated by a fight, a quarrel between the world’s richest man and the world’s most powerful man. But for the vast majority of these people following this saga, it’s irrelevant. It won’t change their lives, and in any case, they can’t affect it, so it’s a bit pointless. Of course, there are people who are engaged in activities that require them to be up-to-date of everything that’s going on, but 99% of people aren’t.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:19:19) 是的，互联网、社交媒体以这样一种方式向我们呈现戏剧性事件，让我们认为这是世界上最大的事情，是最重要的事情，历史的潮流将因此而转向。但实际上，大多数事情不会改变历史的潮流。所以我想我们的挑战是弄清楚什么是永恒的东西？什么是今天正在发生、并且在10年、20年后仍然正确的事情？并由此决定你要做什么。这在社交媒体上非常困难，因为每个人都很愤怒。当天的新闻，无论争吵是什么，那就是每个人都认为世界会因此终结的事情，然后第二天又发生了另一件事。
Lex Fridman (00:19:19) Yeah, the internet, social media presents to us drama in such a way that we think it’s the biggest thing in the world, the most important thing in which the tides of history will turn. But in reality, most things will not turn the tides of history. And so I guess our challenge is to figure out what is the timeless thing? What is the thing that’s happening today that’s still going to be true in 10, 20 years? And from that, decide what you’re going to do. And that’s very difficult on social media because everybody’s outraged. The news of the day, whatever the quarrel is, that’s the thing that everyone thinks the world will end because of this thing, and then another thing happens the next day.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:20:04) 而且他们试图影响你的情绪。
Pavel Durov (00:20:04) And they’re trying to influence your emotions.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:20:07) 是的。
Lex Fridman (00:20:07) Yeah.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:20:08) 这就是你陷入麻烦的方式，因为你可能被迫做出不符合你最佳利益的结论。
Pavel Durov (00:20:08) And that’s how you get into trouble because you can be forced to make conclusions that are not in your best interest.
纪律
Discipline
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:20:17) 我见过你，再次强调，对你的情绪相当斯多葛。你曾经生气过吗？你曾经感到孤独吗？你曾经悲伤过吗？人类情感的过山车，当你做艰难决定时，你如何处理这些情绪？
Lex Fridman (00:20:17) I’ve seen you be, once again, quite stoic about your emotions. You ever get angry? You ever get lonely? You ever get sad? The roller coaster of human emotion, and what do you do with that when you make difficult decisions?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:20:31) 我和其他每个人一样都是人类。我确实会体验到情绪。其中一些并不令人愉快，但我相信，我们每个人都有责任应对这些情绪，并学会克服它们。自律尤其重要，因为没有它，你如何克服这种看似无尽的消极或绝望循环，这种循环最终导致一些人抑郁？我通常从不抑郁。我不记得在过去20年里至少有过抑郁。也许我青少年时期有过。但其中一个原因是，我开始做事。
Pavel Durov (00:20:31) I’m a human being like everybody else. I do get to experience emotions. Some of them are not very pleasant, but I believe that it’s the responsibility of every one of us to cope with these emotions and to learn to work through them. Self-discipline is particularly important because without it, how can you overcome this seemingly endless loop of negativity or despair that ultimately leads to depression for some people? I normally never have depression. I don’t remember having depression in the last 20 years, at least. Maybe when I was a teenager. But one of the reasons for that is I start doing things.
(00:21:25) 我识别问题，我能看到一个解决方案，然后我开始执行策略。如果你陷入担心某事的循环中，什么都不会改变。人们经常犯这个错误，想着，”哦，我应该休息一下，然后恢复精力。”事情不是这样的。你通过做某事来获得能量，所以你开始做某事，然后它发生了，你感到有动力，你感到受到启发。然后最终你做别的事，多一点，再多一点。然后几年后，谁知道呢？你最终可能取得伟大的成就。
(00:21:25) I identify the problem, I can see a solution, and I start executing the strategy. If you are stuck in this loop of being worried about something, nothing’s ever going to change. And people often make this mistake thinking, “Oh, I should just have some rest and then regain energy.” This is not how it works. You gain energy by doing something, so you start doing something, then it happens, you feel motivated, you feel inspired. And then ultimately you do something else, a little bit more, a little bit more. And then a few years, who know? You may end up achieving great things.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:22:12) 是的，这就是人们困惑的地方。如果你陷入抑郁循环，即使当你真的、真的、真的、真的什么都不想做的时候，也要去做点什么。努力取得进展，因为好的感觉会在那之后到来。关键是先做后感觉，而不是先感觉后做。
Lex Fridman (00:22:12) Yeah, that’s the thing that people are confused. If you’re stuck in a depressive cycle, even when you really, really, really, really don’t want to do anything, to do something. Try to make progress because the good feeling comes on the end of that. The whole point is to do first and then feel, not feel and then do.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:22:33) 完全正确。去健身房就是一个好例子。有很多天你不想开始锻炼，但你必须克服最初的不情愿，然后你会达到一个享受它的点，你会想，”哦，天哪，今天来健身房真是个好主意。”但这几乎适用于所有活动。你开始写一些代码，先写一小段代码，然后你受到启发。然后你会想出更多主意。你需要写一部小说或者只是写一段。这很明显，也不是秘密，但因为我们都受到各种信息的轰炸，这些信息对于让我们成功来说并不真正重要，我们常常忘记了重要的事情，而这就是其中之一。
Pavel Durov (00:22:33) Exactly. And going to the gym is a good example. There are many days when you don’t want to start working out, but you have to overcome this initial reluctance, and then you get to a point that you enjoy it and you think, “Oh my God, it was such a good idea to come to the gym today.” But it’s similar to pretty much every activity. You get to write some code, write a small piece of code first, and then you get inspired. Then you’ll come up with more ideas. You need to write a novel or just write the paragraph. This is pretty obvious and it’s not a secret, but because we are bombarded with all kinds of information, that is not really important for us in terms of becoming successful, we often forget the important things, and this is one of them.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:23:32) 我们每天都在锻炼。你已经高强度锻炼了很多年，所以我想很多人会想知道你完美的每日锻炼计划是什么？比如说每天、每周的？
Lex Fridman (00:23:32) We’ve been working out every single day. You have been working out for many years pretty intensively, so I think a lot of people would love to know what’s your perfect daily workout regimen? Let’s say on a daily, weekly basis?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:23:50) 我每天早上做300个俯卧撑和300个深蹲。除此之外，我通常每周去健身房五到六次，每天花一到两个小时。
Pavel Durov (00:23:50) I do 300 push-ups and 300 squats every morning. And in addition to that, I go to the gym normally five, six times a week, spending between one and two hours every day.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:24:04) 所以俯卧撑和深蹲仍然是你日常锻炼的重要组成部分？
Lex Fridman (00:24:04) So push-ups and squats are still a big part of your routine?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:24:07) 是的，这就是我开始一天的方式。我不确定它们在改变你的身体方面有多大作用，但它们绝对是练习自律的好方法，因为大多数日子里你早上并不想做这些俯卧撑。深蹲尤其无聊。它们没那么难，只是无聊，但你克服了它，然后开始做与工作相关的其他事情就容易多了。例如，当我可以的时候，我也洗冰水浴，因为这是另一项自律的练习。我认为你可以锻炼的主要肌肉是这块肌肉，自律的肌肉。不是你的二头肌或胸肌或其他任何部位。因为如果你能训练那块肌肉，其他一切都会随之而来。
Pavel Durov (00:24:07) Yes, this is how I start my day. I’m not sure they do a lot in terms of changing your body, but they’re definitely a good way to practice self-discipline because you don’t want to do these push-ups in the morning most of the days. Squats are particularly boring. They’re not that hard, they’re just boring, but you overcome it and then it’s much easier to start doing other things related to your work. For example, when I can, I also take an ice bath because it’s another exercise of self-discipline. I think the main muscle you can exercise is this muscle, the muscle of self-discipline. Not your biceps or your pecs or anything else. Because if you get to train that one, everything else just comes by itself.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:25:07) 其他一切都变得容易。我们应该提到，我和你一起去过Banya，我想公平地说，就你能承受的程度而言，你有点疯狂。我甚至还没看到最厉害的部分。你能谈谈你在Banya的疯狂冒险吗，你从中获得什么价值？包括热和冷。
Lex Fridman (00:25:07) Everything else becomes easy. We should mention, I went with you to Banya, and I think it’s fair to say you’re nuts in terms of how much you can handle. And I didn’t even see the worst of it. Can you just speak to your crazy escapades in the Banya, what value you get from it? So both the heat and the cold.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:25:31) 我不知道这是否疯狂。我认为到现在这个时候这已经很自然和正常了，但也许我只是习惯了。所以Banya是东欧人实践的一种极端的桑拿，但它的做法是最大化热量，他们还使用各种草药和树枝，这是一种更全面、更自然的体验。然后必要的部分是，你进行冷水浸泡，然后再回去。再次强调，这是那些可能在当下并不总是那么愉快的事情之一，特别是如果你去到极端的温度，你感觉并不好。
Pavel Durov (00:25:31) I don’t know if it’s crazy. I think it’s quite natural and normal by this time, but maybe I just got used to it. So Banya is this extreme kind of sauna practiced by Eastern Europeans, but it is done in a way that maximizes heat and they also use all kind of herbs and branches, and it’s a much more holistic and natural experience. Then the necessary part of it is you get the cold plunge and then you go back. And again, this is one of those things that maybe in the moment it’s not always that pleasant, particularly if you go to extreme temperatures, you don’t feel great.
(00:26:24) 我并不总是感觉良好，但这种感觉会过去。只有几分钟。冰水浴也是一样。你必须忍受一点痛苦，然后你会在之后几小时甚至几天内感觉棒极了。更重要的是，它能给你带来长期的健康益处。在某种程度上，你可以把它看作是反向的酒精。酒精会给你短暂的、转瞬即逝的快乐，持续一小时，几小时，但之后你将付出长期的负面后果作为代价。我宁愿选择Banya和冰水浴。
(00:26:24) I don’t always feel great, but this feeling is passing. It’s only a few minutes. Same with the ice bath. You have to suffer a bit and then you get to feel great for hours and days after. What’s more, it gives you this long-term health benefits. In a way you can look at it as alcohol in reverse. Alcohol will give you this short, fleeting pleasure for an hour, for a couple of hours, but then you will be paying for it with long-term negative consequences. I’d rather do Banya and ice bath.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:27:09) 我们在法国几次游过一个大湖的长度。你能谈谈你为什么重视这些多小时的游泳吗？
Lex Fridman (00:27:09) We swam the length of a large lake in France a couple times. Can you talk through why you value these multi-hour swims?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:27:17) 是的。我喜欢游泳几个小时。我游得最长的一次是在芬兰，五个半小时。水很冷。我在过程中迷路了，几乎找不到回去的路。但我这样做的原因，是的，之后你感觉棒极了。你有点发抖，之后感觉棒极了。你横渡了一个巨大的湖，我横渡过很多湖，日内瓦湖，苏黎世湖。每次你都能感受到这种成就感，这让你快乐，让你感到强大，然后你更准备好去应对其他挑战。当然，当你知道你将开始一段持续几个小时的旅程时，你是不情愿去做的。但你游了10分钟，然后20分钟，然后30分钟，它教会你这种令人难以置信的耐心，我认为如果你想在生活中取得任何成就，这种耐心是必要的。
Pavel Durov (00:27:17) Yeah. I love swimming for hours. The longest I swam was five and a half hours in Finland. It was quite cold. I got lost in the process, barely could find my way back. But the reason I do it, yes, you feel great after. You’re shaking a little bit, you feel great after. You cross a huge lake, and I cross many lakes, Geneva Lake, Zurich Lake. And every time you feel this achievement, which makes you happy, makes you feel strong, and then you’re more ready to do other challenges. And of course, when you know you’re going to start a journey that will last a few hours, you are reluctant to do it. But you swim for 10 minutes and then for 20 minutes and then for 30 minutes, and it teaches you this incredible patience that I think is necessary if you want to achieve anything in life.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:28:23) 而且它很冥想，湖 vs 海洋。
Lex Fridman (00:28:23) And it’s pretty meditative, lake versus ocean.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:28:27) 是的。而且你不必游得太快。你可以慢下来，享受当下。
Pavel Durov (00:28:27) Yes. And you don’t have to go too fast. You can be slow and enjoy the moment.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:28:33) 直到你迷路了，游了五个半小时。你会恐慌吗，如果你要能找到岸，找到出路？
Lex Fridman (00:28:33) Until you get lost and it’s five and a half hours. Would you panic, if you’re going to be able to find the shore, find your way out?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:28:39) 不会真的，我是一个相当抗压的人。那一刻我没有恐慌。而且我有过更糟糕的游泳经历，时间更短，但涉及事故，你知道其中一些。所以那远不是最糟的。但关于游泳和体育活动的一个重要之处在于，它使你的头脑清晰，你的思维过程变得更有效率。因为在一天结束时，我们大脑的效率受限于我们的心脏能通过血液向大脑输送多少糖和氧气。你如何让这个过程更快？或者你如何让你的肺部更有效率？你如何让你的心脏在做这件事上更有效率？
Pavel Durov (00:28:39) Not really, I’m a reasonably stress-resilient person. I didn’t panic at that moment. And there were worse swims I had that were shorter, but involved accidents and you know about some of them. So that wasn’t the worst by far. But an important thing about swimming and physical activity in general is that it makes your mind clear and your thinking process is becoming more efficient. Because at the end of the day, the efficiency of our brain is limited by how much sugar and oxygen our heart can push through blood to our brain though. How can you make this go faster or how do you make your lungs more efficient? How do you make your heart more efficient in doing that?
(00:29:33) 体育活动是我所知道的唯一方法。所以这不仅仅是保持健康或试图看起来好看，它也是关于提高效率。它也是关于抗压能力。所有这些品质都是必要的，如果你想运营一家大公司，如果你想创办一家公司。我惊讶的是，当我十多年前开始这样做时，更多的CEO没有参与体育运动。这种情况在过去几年发生了变化，这很好。因为回溯到20年前，有一种刻板印象，如果你很强壮，你一定不太聪明，反之亦然。这完全是荒谬的。很多时候这两者是相辅相成的。
(00:29:33) Physical activity is the only way I know of. So it’s not just staying healthy or trying to look good, it’s also being productive. It’s also being stress resilient. All of these qualities are necessary if you want to run a large company, if you want to start a company. I’m surprised when I started doing this more than 10 years ago, that more CEOs didn’t engage in sports. The situation changed in the last several years, which is great. Because back in the day, if you take 20 years ago, there was this stereotype that if you are strong, you must be not very smart and vice versa. Which is a complete lunacy. Very often these two things go together.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:30:34) 所以对你来说，锻炼不仅仅是为了保持健康，它实际上对你作为技术领导者、工程师、技术专家所做的工作很有价值。
Lex Fridman (00:30:34) So for you working out is not just about staying healthy, it’s actually valuable for the work that you do as a tech leader, as an engineer, as a technologist.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:30:43) 哦，是的。当我不能锻炼时，我能立刻感觉到压力正在向我袭来。所以即使在受限制的情况下，我不能去健身房，我也会继续做俯卧撑。我只是继续做深蹲。
Pavel Durov (00:30:43) Oh yes. When I can’t train, I can instantly feel that stress is creeping on me. So even in situations when I’m constrained, I can’t go to the gym, I would just keep doing push-ups. I just keep doing squats.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:31:06) 是的，我的意思是，自重锻炼的好处就在于此。你可以在任何地方做。你可以在开会前突然做50个、100个俯卧撑。
Lex Fridman (00:31:06) Yeah, I mean that’s the cool thing about body weight exercise. You could just do it anywhere. You could just pop off 50, 100 push-ups before a meeting.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:31:16) 如果一天没有体育活动，你不会觉得不对劲吗？
Pavel Durov (00:31:16) Don’t you feel weird when you have a day without physical activity?
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:31:21) 是的。如果我一天不做俯卧撑，至少是最低限度的，那这一天就很糟糕。
Lex Fridman (00:31:21) Yeah. If I go a day without doing push-ups, at the very minimum, it’s a shitty day.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:31:27) 如果你能做引体向上，那就更好了。
Pavel Durov (00:31:27) And if you can do pull-ups, it’s even better.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:31:30) 是的。我还得问问你的饮食。不摄入加工糖，不吃快餐，不喝苏打水。间歇性禁食，有时一天只吃一顿，有时一天吃几顿。那么跟我讲讲你关于不吃糖、不喝苏打水、只吃健康食物的哲学。
Lex Fridman (00:31:30) Yeah. I got to ask you about your diet too. No processed sugar, no fast food, no soda. Intermittent fasting, sometimes once a day only, sometimes a couple times a day. So take me through your philosophy on the no sugar, no soda, just clean food.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:31:47) 嗯，糖很简单，因为它容易上瘾。你消耗的糖越多，你就越想要它，你就越饿。所以如果你想保持高效和健康，为什么要消耗加工糖呢？你最终只会一直吃零食。间歇性禁食。所以每天只在6小时内进食，18小时不进食，这也会给你的日子和饮食习惯带来结构。这样你就不再渴望糖了，因为你知道如果你吃了糖，然后又不能吃零食，你只是在惩罚自己。我读过几本关于长寿的书。我想大家都同意的一点是，糖是有害的。
Pavel Durov (00:31:47) Well, sugar is pretty easy because it’s addictive. The more you consume sugar, the more you want it, the hungrier you get. So if you want to stay efficient and healthy, why consume processed sugar? You’ll just end up snacking all the time. Intermittent fasting. So eating only within six hours and not eating for 18 hours every day also brings structure into your day and into your eating habits. So you don’t crave sugar anymore because you know if you eat sugar and then you’re unable to snack, you’re just punishing yourself. I read a few books on longevity. I think something everybody agrees on is that sugar is harmful.
(00:32:48) 不，我对糖并不极端。你可以吃浆果、水果，如果你觉得你的身体需要它，但认为有必要吃甜食是不对的。对儿童不是，对成人也不是。红肉，我大约20年前就停止吃了，因为每次吃完我都觉得身体沉重。所以我猜这是因人而异的。是我的新陈代谢。我的消化系统不同意这种食物。所以我通常吃各种海鲜和蔬菜。这是我卡路里的基本来源。
(00:32:48) No, I’m not militant about sugar. You can eat berries, fruit, if you feel your body needs it, but it’s not true to think it’s necessary to consume sweet things. Not for children, not for adults. Red meat, I stopped eating it about 20 years ago because I just felt heavy every time I had it. So I guess it’s individual. It’s my metabolism. My digestive system isn’t agreeing with this kind of food. So I normally eat seafood of all kinds and vegetables. This is the basic source of calories for me.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:33:37) 是的，就像所有事情一样，你说过，”短期的快乐不值得你付出未来。”所以很多事情我们都知道，酒精对身体有害。烟草、药片、加工食品、糖，但社会把这些强加给你，使得避免它们非常困难。所以我想这一切都归结为自律。
Lex Fridman (00:33:37) Yeah, and like all things, you said, “Short-term pleasure isn’t worth your future.” So a lot of things we all know, that alcohol is destructive to the body. Tobacco, pills, processed food, sugar, but society puts that on you, makes it very difficult to avoid. So I guess it all boils down to just discipline.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:33:56) 是的，并且试图识别你正在经历的问题的真正原因。如果你正在经历头痛，一种解决方案是吃一片药，然后头痛就消失了。这片药实际上在大多数情况下会做什么，它会消除后果，你的疼痛感。它是一种止痛药。它不会消除根本原因。所以你必须问自己，”是什么导致了这种头痛？我需要喝点水吗？这里的空气质量不好吗？我需要开始多睡点觉吗？我周围的人有什么问题吗？他们在给我压力。”一定有什么原因导致你经历头痛。但如果你吃药，你并没有消除这个原因，你实际上是在让它变得更糟，因为这个有害因素仍然存在。这就像你-
Pavel Durov (00:33:56) Yes, and trying to identify the real cause of an issue you’re experiencing. If you’re experiencing a headache, one solution would be to take a pill and then the headache disappears. What this pill would actually do, in most cases, it would mute the consequence, your feeling of pain. It’s a painkiller. It will not eliminate the root cause. So you have to ask yourself, ” What is it that’s causing this headache? Do I need to drink some water? Is the air quality here bad? Do I need to start getting more sleep? Is there something wrong with people around me? They’re stressing me out.” There must be some reason why you’re experiencing a headache. But if you take a pill, you’re not removing this reason, you’re actually making it worse because this harmful factor is still there. It’s like you’re-
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:35:00) 有害因素仍然存在。这就像你在驾驶一架直升机，有一些红色信号，红灯开始闪烁，并开始产生糟糕的、令人不快的噪音。你会怎么做？你会试着找出原因并消除它。也许你旁边有座山，你必须避开它，或者你拿把锤子砸碎信号灯。我认为答案很明显。那么，为什么我们还在不断地这样做呢？哦，因为其他每个人都这样做。因为有一个完整的行业试图说服你这样做是对的。所以，分析自己并试图追根究底是极其重要的。
Pavel Durov (00:35:00) Full factor is still there. It’s like you’re piloting a helicopter and there is some red signals and red lamp starts to blink and it starts producing bad, unpleasant noise. What would you do? You would try to figure out the cause and eliminate it. Maybe there is some mountain next to you and you have to avoid it, or you take a hammer and smash the signal. I think the answer is quite obvious. So, why are we constantly doing this regardless? Oh, because everybody else is doing it. Because there’s a whole industry trying to persuade you that this is the right thing to do. So, it’s incredibly important to analyze yourself and try to get to the bottom of things.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:35:48) 所以你通常尽量避免所有药片，所有医药产品？
Lex Fridman (00:35:48) So you generally try to avoid all pills, all pharmaceutical products?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:35:53) 是的。自从我成年后，我就一直远离所有那些东西。当你是个青少年时，你妈妈通常会说，”我们需要吃这片药，否则世界就崩溃了。”一旦我长大成人，我说，”不，我认为药片生产商的激励方式不对。他们并不是真的对消除问题的根源感兴趣。”他们宁愿让我依赖他们生产的药片，这样我就可以永远购买它们。不，我并不是说你永远不应该吃药。显然有些疾病你只能用抗生素来对抗，例如。所以，我不是建议我们回到中世纪，但我想说的是我们过度使用药片。
Pavel Durov (00:35:53) Yes. I’ve been staying away from all of that since I became an adult. When you’re a teenager, your mom would typically say, “We need to take this pill, otherwise the world collapses.” Once I became a grown-up, I said, “No, I don’t think that the producers of pill are incentivized in the right way. They’re not really interested in eliminating the root of the problem.” They would rather have me dependent on the pills they’re producing so that I could buy them forever. No, I’m not saying that you should never take pills. There are obviously some diseases that you can only fight with antibiotics, for example. So, I’m not suggesting we go back to the Middle Ages, but what I’m saying is we overuse pills.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:36:59) 是的，总是好的去研究并深入理解世界运作所基于的激励机制，这样你就不会被在这些激励下运作的力量卷走。大型制药公司当然是其中之一。制药公司有巨大的动力让问题持续下去，而不是解决问题。这是明智的。
Lex Fridman (00:36:59) Yeah, it’s always good to study and deeply understand the incentives under which the world operates so that you don’t get swept up into the forces that operate under these incentives. Big Pharma is certainly one of them. Pharmaceutical companies have a huge incentive to keep the problem going versus solving the problem. It’s wise.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:37:19) 这是我每天都在实践的事情。我读到一些新闻，然后问自己，”谁从阅读这些信息中受益？”然后你最终可能得出这样的结论：也许我们新闻中读到的95%的东西被撰写和出版，是因为有人想让你购买某种产品，支持某种政治事业，打某场战争，捐赠一些钱。让我们做一些有利于他人的事情。支持你真正信仰的事业并不是问题，只要这是你 intentional 的选择，并且你不是被操纵去为别人打仗。
Pavel Durov (00:37:19) This is something I practice every day. I read some piece of news and I ask myself, “Who benefits from me reading this?” Then you can end up coming to this conclusion that maybe 95% of things we read in the news have been written and published because somebody wanted you to buy some product, support some political cause, fight some war, donate some money. Let’s do something that would benefit other people. This is not a problem to support causes that you truly believe in as long as it was your intentional choice and you’re not being manipulated into fighting other people’s wars.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:38:14) 这又把我们带回到我们最初谈论的事情，那就是自由。实现思想自由的方法之一是让你的思想远离那些操纵你的影响和力量。意识到你消费的内容，尤其是在互联网上，其中很大一部分是为了操纵你的思想而设计的，这一点非常重要。你必须断开连接。要非常主动地理解偏见是什么，激励是什么。这样你才能清晰、独立、客观地思考。
Lex Fridman (00:38:14) And that takes us back to the original thing we started talking about, which is freedom. One of the ways to achieve freedom of thought is to remove your mind from the influences, the forces that manipulate you. That’s really important to realize the content you consume, especially on the internet, when a large percentage of it is designed to manipulate your mind. You have to disconnect yourself. Be very proactive understanding what the biases, what the incentives are. So, you can think clearly, independently, and objectively.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:38:51) 再次强调，这与戒绝酒精有关，因为如果你的头脑模糊不清，你怎么能分析自己呢？你将永远依赖他人的意见。你总是追随主流。然后无论当局或掌权者告诉你什么，你都会相信，因为你没有自己的工具可以依靠来得出自己的结论。
Pavel Durov (00:38:51) Again, it ties back with restraint from alcohol because if your mind is clouded, how can you analyze yourself? You’ll always be dependent on opinions of others. You always follow the mainstream. And then whatever the authorities or whoever in charge will tell you, you believe it because you don’t have a tool of your own to rely on to come to your own conclusions.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:39:27) 我必须问你，这是出现的一个问题。你不看色情内容。我不认为我以前听你谈过这个。不看色情内容背后的哲学是什么？很多人谈论色情内容总体上对年轻男性有非常负面的影响，影响他们对世界的看法，影响他们性行为的发展以及他们如何建立关系等等。那么，你不消费色情内容的哲学是什么？
Lex Fridman (00:39:27) I have to ask you, this is something that came up. You don’t watch porn. I don’t think I’ve heard you talk about this before. What’s the philosophy behind not watching porn? There’s a lot of people that talk about porn in general having a very negative effect on young men on their view of the world, on their development of their sexuality and how they get into relationships and all that stuff. So, what’s your philosophy in not consuming porn?
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:39:55) 我不看色情内容，因为我觉得它是一种替代品，是真实事物的代用品，在我的生活中没有必要。如果有任何影响，它只是迫使你用一些能量、一些灵感去交换一个短暂的快乐时刻。这没有意义。无论如何，正如我所说，它不是真实的东西。所以，只要你能接触到真实的东西，你就不需要看色情内容。但如果你无法接触到真实的东西，你也不应该看色情内容，因为这意味着你生活中存在某种缺陷，某个你必须克服的问题。
Pavel Durov (00:39:55) I don’t watch porn because I just feel it’s a surrogate, a substitute for a real thing that is not necessary in my life. If anything, it just forces you to exchange some energy, some inspiration to a fleeting moment of pleasure. It doesn’t make sense. In any case, as I said, it’s not the real thing. So, as long as you can access the real thing, you don’t need to watch porn. But then if you can’t access the real thing, you shouldn’t watch porn as well because it means there’s some deficiency in your life, some problem that you have to overcome.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:40:45) 是的，分析根本原因。再次强调，这回到了投资于长期繁荣 versus 短期快乐的主题。你对待生活的方式有一个主题。
Lex Fridman (00:40:45) Yeah, analyze the underlying cause. Again, this goes back to the theme of investing in a long-term flourishing versus short-term pleasure. There’s a theme to the way you approach life.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:41:02) 我尽量具有战略性。我尽量基于我不会在一小时内死去并且我会再活一段时间的假设来行动，尽管我们都会死。那么，我为什么要用中期和长期来交换短期呢？这没有任何意义。
Pavel Durov (00:41:02) I try to be strategic. I try to act under assumption that I’m not going to die in one hour from now and I’m going to stick around for a bit despite the fact that we are all mortal. So, why would I exchange the mid and long term for the short term? It doesn’t make any sense.
莱克斯·弗里德曼 (00:41:23) 快速暂停，洗手间休息。
Lex Fridman (00:41:23) Quick pause, bathroom break.
帕维尔·杜罗夫 (00:41:24) 好的，我们休息一下。
Pavel Durov (00:41:24) Yeah, let’s take a break.
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杠杆的艺术与技术（下篇）：三倍杠杆，三重防范，未雨绸缪，锦上添花？
“飞光飞光，劝尔一杯酒。吾不识青天高，黄地厚。唯见月寒日暖，来煎人寿。食熊则肥，食蛙则瘦。神君何在？太一安有？天东有若木，下置衔烛龙。吾将斩龙足，嚼龙肉，使之朝不得回，夜不得伏。自然老者不死，少者不哭。何为服黄金、吞白玉？谁似任公子，云中骑碧驴？刘彻茂陵多滞骨，嬴政梓棺费鲍鱼。”——李贺《苦昼短》
（初来乍到的朋友，建议先阅读【上篇】和【中篇】，再阅读本文，体验更加）
一 吾不识青天高，黄地厚
你可曾有过，在美国旅游或生活的经历？
在美国旅游或生活，令人印象深刻、甚至颇为诟病的一个地方，在于小费文化。
餐馆用餐，要留给服务员小费；酒店住宿，要塞枕头下小费；连出门打出租车，都得给司机一笔小费。
打出租，通常给车费10-20%的小费，凑个整，去趟机场，小费也得有个8到10刀了，挺肉疼。
可是，你知道吗？早在1980年代，有一位奇人，已经给纽约出租车司机，高达100美元的小费了！
100美元啊！1980年代的100美元！这家伙的钱，难道是大风刮来的？
还真差不多，这位奇人，是华尔街一位出色的交易员。
有时候，恶作剧也不乏同情心。记得在我当交易员的早期，钱开始来得很容易。我平时坐出租车，如果司机说着蹩脚的英语，并且看起来非常窘迫，我就会给他一张百元大钞（当做小费），让他感到有点震惊和意外。你会看着他展开钞票，以某种惊慌失措的表情看着它。（100万美元肯定有更好的效果，但我办不到。）
这也是一种简单的快乐实验：只花100美元就让别人有快乐一天的感觉，非常令人飘飘然。后来我不这样做了，因为当我们的财富增加并且我们开始看重钱时，我们都变得吝啬和斤斤计较起来。
这位嚣张跋扈的交易员，到底是何方神圣？
你听说过“黑天鹅效应（Black Swan Effect）”或“黑天鹅事件”么？
黑天鹅事件，指一种极小概率发生，但影响巨大的意外事件。
它具有以下三个主要特征：
极度罕见：事件发生概率极低，超出正常预期，几乎无法预测。
影响巨大：一旦发生，会对社会、经济、市场或个人产生深远且剧烈的冲击。
事后解释：事后人们往往会尝试为事件寻找合理化解释，认为它“本应可预测”。
这位在1980年，给100美元出租车小费的圣人，恰恰就是黑天鹅效应的提出者——纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）。
塔勒布这老哥，至今仍活跃于X（twitter）等社交媒体平台。
这老哥，在社交媒体上，也一如40年前，就给100美元小费的作风：潇洒、豪爽、奔放、快意人生。
塔老哥，一直大力宣扬：想要健康长寿，无论年轻还是老年，必须重点做重量训练，而非有氧运动如游泳或慢跑。
单纯宣扬，怎能取信于人。塔老哥，不仅有大风刮来、令人欣羡的财富，还以身作则做重量训练，让自己壮得像公牛一般，并自称举重爱好者。
在2015年的一篇采访中，老哥提到自己（已经55岁）能硬拉（Deadlift）325磅（约147公斤）。
今年，65岁的塔老哥，在X上分享自己能用六角杠硬拉约200-220磅（约90-100公斤），并提到推举95磅（约43公斤）。
与我父母相若的年龄，却有着远比我这年龄，还要强健的体魄。崇拜不崇拜？敬仰不敬仰？
题外but重要的话，书童此前，也追踪了近年长寿研究的大综述如《超越百岁》一书，塔老哥所言非虚！
确保不受伤的前提下，渐进式重量训练，的确是延长寿命，更重要的是——确保高质量中晚年生活的不二法门。
因此，划重点啦：如果你身边有奇人，在美国能给到100美元小费，一定要重视他说的每一句话。
二 食熊则肥，食蛙则瘦
聪明的读者，一定在揣测，作为三倍杠杆系列最后一篇收官之作，却至今还没进入主题，书童一定是在为塔老哥的策略做铺陈，对不对！
是啦是啦，您这么了解书童，请一定看到本篇最后哦！
塔老哥写出《黑天鹅：如何应对不可知的未来》一书爆红之后，又出了本《反脆弱（Antifragile）》，同样风行一时。
啥叫反脆弱？不懂。
首先，啥叫脆弱？这个好理解，比如玻璃杯，掉地上，易碎，这就是脆弱。
那反脆弱就是掉地上，不容易碎的玻璃杯么？
那可就太小看塔老哥的概念构建能力了。
不是！掉地上不容易碎，那只是强韧（robust），并非反脆弱（antifragile）。
如果有一个玻璃杯，直接从1m高的桌面掉到地板上，会碎掉，这不奇怪。
但是，如果这个玻璃杯，你先让它试着从0.5m掉几次，没有碎；再慢慢加到0.6m、0.7m……直到1m再掉落，它却不会碎裂了，这就是一支反脆弱的玻璃杯！
啥玩意儿？一派胡言！普天之下，哪有这种奇怪的玻璃杯？
嘿嘿，当然不存在这种不合理的玻璃杯；但是，你身体的肌肉和骨骼，却遵循反脆弱的原理。
还记得刚刚提过的渐进式重量训练么？
每几次相同重量的肌力训练后，再增加一点点的负重，你会觉得，这微不足道的增重，却如同第一次肌力训练一般，艰难到不可理喻。
对应的肌肉，也会在这次增重后，如同第一次训练一般，有了微小的撕裂。而这些微小撕裂，会在两三天内修复，让你的肌肉变得更加强壮。
同时，你的骨骼，也会在渐进增加的受力后，骨密度增加，变得更加强硬。
几次之后，你有一次体验到，相同重量的训练，开始变得轻松。恭喜你！你的身体，就是名副其实的反脆弱实体！
再插播一条非常重要的提醒：老年人非常怕跌倒，很多老人一旦跌倒，就会骨折；而一旦骨折，就再也无法起身，长期卧床直到去世。
这其中，有一个如此糟糕的正反馈在起作用：因为缺少力量训练——>肌肉力量、骨密度不足——>下肢肌无力容易跌倒——>因骨密度不足，跌倒后易骨折——>骨折后只能长期卧床，更无法运动锻炼——>下肢肌肉力量继续下降——>丧失直立行走能力——>失能与死亡。
而打破这一正反馈的关键做法，不言自明。
《超越百岁》一书强调，一个人的肌肉量和骨密度，会随年龄流失。因此老年时，非常依赖青壮年时期的储备，尽可能让我们反脆弱的肌肉和骨骼，物尽其用吧！
“What doesn’t kill you make you stronger, stand a little taller.” Kelly Clarkson这首歌，完美阐释了什么叫做反脆弱。
反脆弱的核心，在于压力是成长的必要条件，通过适度随机性和挑战，系统能优化自身。塔勒布强调，这不能简单理解为恢复力（resilience），而是因混乱而获益的能力。
“Chaos is the ladder.” 《权力的游戏》里，小指头是专业的。
三 神君何在
让我们终于切入正题。
回顾此前所述，三倍杠杆ETF，不仅有着上窜下跳的狂躁特性，却又似乎隐含某种“反脆弱”的影子？
其原因书童在此不多解释，请诸君翻及前篇，思忖究竟，亦有助于诸君投资获益。
塔老哥投资策略的核心，在于如何“基于非预测性的世界观，来构建具有反脆弱性的策略”。
老哥格外推崇的一个策略，被其誉为“杠铃策略”：
老哥《反脆弱》一书中，如此写道：
起初，我用杠铃来形象地描述在某些领域采取保守策略（从而在负面的“黑天鹅”面前保持强韧性），而在其他领域承担很多小的风险（以开放的姿态迎接正面的“黑天鹅”）的双重态度，从而实现反脆弱性。
一面是极端的风险厌恶，一面是极端的风险偏好，而不采取“中等程度”或“温和”的风险态度，因为这种态度实际上是骗人的把戏（人们一般都明白“高风险”和“零风险”的概念，但是中等风险则有很大的迷惑性，因为它受巨大的测量误差的影响）。
但是，得益于它的结构，杠铃策略有利于不利风险的减少，也就是能消除毁灭性风险。
是不是诘屈聱牙，莫名其妙？
没关系，书童用人话举几个例子：
-
某位有着铁饭碗公务员工作的老哥，用每月工资的5%去购买比特币。
-
作家J.K.罗琳在教学的同时写作《哈利·波特》。
-
把99%的仓位放到短期美债，1%的仓位每隔几个月赌一次末日期权。
因此，我们是否有可能，利用3XETF，构建一个杠铃策略，使得该策略实现：
a.获得与底层标的相若的长期复合增长率的同时，承受幅度更小的最大回撤水平。
b.在相似幅度的最大回撤水平下，能够获得高于底层标的的长期复合增长率。
可见，a与b基本等价，实现任何一者，都相当于获得了一个优于直接买入并持有单一底层标的的策略。
好，我们不妨以SPXL为例，尝试能否按照塔老哥得投资哲学，构建一个杠铃策略，使之优于单纯买入并持有底层标的标普500。
要知道，拉长到十年的跨度，85%以上的基金经理，是无法跑赢标普500的哦！
四 太一安有
首先，让我们考察，从SPXL开始公开交易的2008年11月7日（书童勘误：应为11月5日，差两天，就不重新回测啦XD）至2025年10月12日，差不多17年岁月，用一万美元，一把梭SPY（标普500指数基金ETF），每年1月1日，将分红再投资，会怎样呢。
啥玩意儿啊，花花绿绿的。
老读者们或许知道，这张丑图讲了些啥。
新读者们，对不起，书童已经口干舌燥讲过很多遍啦，请参考系列文章之中篇，一窥丑图究竟。
书童直接抛结论在此：近17年光阴，一把梭并且每年红利再投资于SPY，能够把初始的一万美元，变为近8.7万美元！年化复合增长率高达13.62%！
当然，17年里，获取近8倍收益的过程，可不是一帆风顺的哦。
策略在08年11月入场，已经避开了2008年金融危机期间，最风雨飘摇的岁月，但是后续若干次大的回撤，幅度普遍也在-15%以上。
2020年新冠疫情Lockdown，美股连续熔断，最大回撤33.77%，想必不少读者记忆犹新。
好，接下来，让我们尝试用SPXL，来构建塔老哥的杠铃策略。
杠铃激进一端，当然是SPXL，那么极端保守的另一端呢？
什么最保守？当然是现金了。短期美国国债、国库券，等价于现金。
我们索性认为，这部分现金，滚动买入美国财政部发行的13星期国库券，能够获得国库券的无风险收益。
接下来是配比的问题，极端保守的一端，配比要显著多于激进一端。事实上，这是一个需要进行参数优化的问题。
作为初始猜测，我们采用7：3的比例，试一下！
由于SPXL的涨跌，会造成杠铃两端比例的变化；因此我们对这一杠铃组合，每年进行一次再平衡，维持现金与SPXL的比例保持在7：3。
哇！看到没？塔老哥诚不我欺！
17年里，杠铃策略基本维持与基准SPX差不多的年化收益率（11.5% vs 12.1%）。
惊艳的地方在于，SPX最大回撤在新冠疫情期间，达到-34.1%（指数回调略高于红利再投资），而杠铃策略将回撤控制在了-25.0%！
一边是极端的激进：三倍杠杆做多SPX，另一端是极端的保守，只买无风险的国库券，组合起来就是媲美SPX回报，同时拥有更低的最大回撤的组合！
这就叫——凸性！
啥玩意儿？
嘿嘿，不解释了，看塔老哥的书去理解吧。
此外，由于杠铃的激进端，三倍杠杆ETF独特的属性，在市场风雨飘摇的下跌阶段，居然可以自动去杠杆！
比如2020年，新冠疫情，美股连续熔断，最波澜壮阔的下跌阶段，我们杠铃策略的杠杆率，从接近200%，自动下降到了不到120%。
经常在券商融资加杠杆的同学可以发现，这与加杠杆直接买底层标的，有着截然相反的效果：一者随时让你收到Margin Call（追加保证金通知），另一者主动帮你去杠杆XD。
这是否也说明，3X杠杆基金本身，也存在一定的反脆弱性？
从极限角度考虑，如果SPXL跌到0（实际几乎不可能），你的债务也出清了，回到了无杠杆的状态。
哎呦喂，好像有点意思。
很好，我们可以进一步调整这个杠铃配比，比如我们希望在与基准SPX有相同的最大回撤的情况下，获得更高回报，那么可以增加SPXL的比重，来测试下6：4.
咣！-33%最大回撤，与SPX的-34%基本相若。
而年化回报，比SPX高出两个点还多，达到了+14.5%！
过瘾不过瘾？飘然不飘然？
当然，诸位看官需要注意的是，我们假设全部现金，都能获得13星期国库券的收益，这是一个过于理想的条件。
实际交易过程，难免有一定摩擦成本。当然，你的资金体量越大，这一成本损耗也越小。
服黄金、吞白玉
神君，太一！杠铃策略太无敌了吧。
让我们继续思考，是否有可能，构建出年化回报和最大回撤，两个指标都优于SPX的策略呢？
哈哈，广告时间到，下面请参考书童之前的文章——只要买入这种魔法资产，就能缓冲标普500一半的跌幅？。阅读思考后，记得返航哦。
咣咣咣！让我们把大类资产配置的思路，引入到杠铃的激进端。
让我们在激进端，组合两种不同的3X杠铃片！
比如加入3X做多20年以上长期美债的TMF，让TMF与SPXL两个杠铃片都是1：1配重，保守端的国库券杠铃片仍然占比60%。
由于TMF于2009年4月才开始公开交易，因此我们用中篇提到的类似的数学模型，将其扩展到2008年11月7日。
诶，这个策略看起来，好像并不及50-50股票-长债策略？
在不加杠杆的50-50策略中，由于长债和股票的低相关性，能够降低整个资产组合的波动。
而这个策略，似乎并没有明显降低最大回撤，反而拖拽了收益？
仔细查看收益曲线，我们能够看到，蓝色（投资组合累积收益）线相比于SPX，在2020年之前似乎不相上下，但是2020年之后，却一蹶不振。
回想2020年至今，美联储首先祭出了无限制放水的大杀器，然后通胀爆表，紧接着暴力加息，直到今日，美国20年期以上长债利率，仍然维持在4%以上。
3X杠杆做多长债，2022年暴力加息阶段，可是结结实实吃了个大瘪，至今仍然萎靡不振，无怪乎后续表现不济。
让我们继续优化一下则个策略。
让我们祭出——只有中子星碰撞，才能够创造的——星际文明硬通货——黄金！这一独特的资产，与美股、长债相关性都很低。
服黄金，吞白玉。说干就干。
可是美股赌具当中，把现货/期货黄金价格作为底层标的，并提供3X杠杆的ETF，只有一支SHNY。
这支由加拿大蒙特利尔银行发行的杠杆ETF，其追踪GLD（底层标的为现货实物黄金）日价格变化，但其从2023年才开始的短短历史，并不足以协助我们构建策略。
那么我们只能退而求其次，采用2X杠杆的黄金ETF——UGL来构建啦。
当然UGL其实和SHNY的底层标的并不一样，暂时先不讨论这个。
诶，这个结果似乎有改善，但好像还是逊色了些哦，2016年之后，就开始持续跑输SPX了。
注意那个UGL24%的比例，纯纯是年初再平衡后，黄金硬生生的价格涨出来的。
咱说了，黄金，可是星际文明货币，将来外星智慧生物来地球，大概率也会认黄金为一般等价物。
追高慎重，其余不再赘述，相关文章，请看文末。
我们继续优化一下这个策略。
首先，现金比例60%，在有三种相关性低的大类资产，占据了杠铃另一端的情况下，似乎确有些过于保守了，让我们把这个比例降低到50%——公平。
此外，2X杠杆和3X杠杆的杠铃片，怎么能一样重呢。我们不妨让SPXL:TMF:UGL=2:2:3，看看结果有何不同！
结果有改善，但依然逊色SPX的表现。难道，没有更好的方法，能够改善这种杠铃策略的回报表现了么？
谁似任公子，云中骑碧驴
有！甚至，这个改进后的杠铃策略，正是书童本人，已长期使用的策略之一。
我们首先，还是要继续深入考察3X杠杆ETF的基本特性。
………………
以SPXL为例，复习一下。
优点：
- 连续上涨时期，3X杠杆ETF的涨幅具有复利效应。
- 美股熔断机制，决定了SPXL单日可能的最大跌幅在-60%，不存在清零风险。
- 居然还有分红。
- 下跌自动去杠杆，不用担心需要追加保证金。
缺点：
- 波动大
- 底层标的非连续上涨就下跌（波动率损耗）
因此，我们改进的基本逻辑是：
- 尽可能长时间、大仓位地拿住3XETF连续上涨阶段，贪婪如饕餮，饱尝丰厚盈利；
- 尽可能避开底层标的横盘或下跌阶段，弃如敝屣，片甲不留。
来时汹涌澎湃，排山倒海；走时雷厉风行，斩钉截铁。
这不废话么，谁都想在上涨阶段在场，下跌阶段离场。
没错，事实上，在这一基本哲学指导下，依赖客观、可靠的技术指标，建立起来的交易系统，往往被划分在趋势跟随系统。
让我们仅仅使用一个最简单的趋势跟随策略：双均线系统，来优化我们的杠铃策略。
双均线交易系统是一种基于两条移动平均线（MA）的技术分析交易策略，通常使用短期均线（如5日或10日）和长期均线（如20日、50日）。
其核心逻辑是通过均线的交叉来判断买卖信号：
金叉（买入信号）：当短期均线上穿长期均线时，表明价格趋势可能转为上涨，触发买入信号。
死叉（卖出信号）：当短期均线下穿长期均线时，表明价格趋势可能转为下跌，触发卖出信号。
这这这，这不就是追涨杀跌么？
没错，就是追涨杀跌，不过是有规矩的追涨杀跌。
我了解诸多科班出身，擅长宏观分析、企业估值、以及AI量化的朋友们，对诸多技术分析过拟合流派嗤之以鼻。
书童最初也不屑一顾，直到真正在SPXL上测试了双均线系统，并且想明白了一些事情。
因书童不喜欢频繁交易，仅仅进行了简单的参数优化，让长短均线有尽可能大的离差，从而降低对短期小波动（噪音）的敏感性。
优化后选用10日做短均线，180日为长均线参数。
我们假定完全不保留现金，维持每年一次再平衡的频率，如果触发买入或卖出信号，则全仓买入/卖出。
震惊不震惊？
回测时间段，SPXL+双均线策略的收益曲线，稳稳压制了基准SPX，年化收益率接近令人叹为观止的25%。而最大回撤，被截断在38%，仅仅比SPX高一点点。
为什么如此震撼？一方面，必须承认，利用历史数据进行参数优化，必然无法避免过拟合的问题。长期执行该策略，大概率无法获得历史回测期间如此优异的风险回报比。
另一方面，比较玄学的是，SPX的上涨，往往具有小幅、持续、稳定的特点；而下跌，则往往凌厉、迅速、短暂；SPX下跌过后，要么是快速反弹；要么是慢慢磨底走熊。
以上三种特点组合，非常适合以分隔较大的长短均线交织飞舞，作为非预测性的判断指标。
趋势来了，大快朵颐；趋势走了，胆小如鼠；而上下穿线震荡，对不起了，这是必须付出的成本。
那么问题是，SPX，是否长期依然有这种特性？我不知道，没有人知道。
最后，我们以最大回撤不超过SPX为目标，构建了SPXL+TMF+UGL的杠铃策略，结果如下：
长期年化回报+15.5%，超过SPX 3%哦，而且，最大回撤仅仅-26%，低于SPX近10%呢。
聪明如你，一定发现，这个策略，居然会满仓SPXL+TMF+UGL。
这这这，这与杠铃策略大大的不同吧！
我们不妨这样解读：塔勒布的杠铃策略中，全部资产、自始至终，都处于买入并持有状态，并不择时而动；因此，在任一时间切片上，杠铃两端，都挂满了杠铃片。
而我们，引入的双均线策略，实际上是一种动态择时的策略。从而我们构建了时间上的动态杠铃。
同时，由于这些标的，是市场上流动性非常好的标的，MA穿线全仓买入/卖出的时候，标的承载数百万美元的交易规模，也不会对价格造成可观测的影响。
因此，对于一般私人资产规模而言，策略容量是绰绰有余的。
浪潮涌来，让我们用全部的杠铃片，倾注于激进洪流；海啸褪去，让我们斩钉截铁地驶离险滩，持盈守泰。
那么，书童对自己的究极拷问是：我到底有多么相信，该策略的长期有效性？
嘿嘿，自从程序化运行和跟踪以来，这个策略，被书童称为：Wizardspike，巫师之刺。
玩过暗黑破坏神II的朋友，或许会知道，这是死灵法师用的一件暗金匕首。
行情好的时候，我们刺突猛进，博取丰沛收益；潮水一旦褪去，我们干净利落，扭头抽离。
如刺突进，如刺抽离——巫师之刺。
对书童而言，大概只把10-15%的总资产，放在该策略上，
最后的最后，必须要提醒诸君：2020年3月连续熔断期间，你能卖出去么？
3X ETF，永远只能当作正餐后的甜点，蛋糕上的奶油，做菜放的调味料。
千万不能喧宾夺主，成为主食和正餐哦！！！
参考：
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- Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part4
- Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part3
- 高压教育、游戏开发、极致优化：Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part3
- Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part2
- Telegram创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫2025年10月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译 Part1
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- 化学诺奖得主、Deepmind创始人哈萨比斯2025年7月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译（下）
- 生命、天气模拟、AGI、：诺贝尔化学奖得主、Deepmind创始人哈萨比斯2025年7月播客实录 | 中英文完整版精译（中）
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