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Wind extinguishes a candle but energizes fire.-
A bit of experience and bitter reflection from my visit to CD
(This is purely fictional. Any similarity to actual persons or events is purely coincidental.)
I was invited by Dr. J to deliver a talk in CD. Upon landing, the driver picked me up and expressed a keen interest in my experiences in the Fishing Village. He shared that his child had achieved a score of approximately 630 in high school, which holds potential for admission to a good university. He conveyed the strong pressure he felt regarding his son’s future and mentioned the efforts he and his wife had made to provide a better educational environment by relocating to CD. Meanwhile, his friends stayed in their hometown were doing well in business and finding success, which left him feeling somewhat disheartened.
He told me that his son hopes to study electronics in a famous local Univerisityu, and he desires for his son to attend a university that would ensure a stable job upon graduation. He also criticized the unfair competition young people face when trying to secure a “stable” job.
I made sure to commend his dedication and sacrifices for providing his son with a quality educational environment. I shared my journey from a small village to YT, a coastal city that offered me a wonderful educational experience and shaped who I am today. The southeastern coastal cities provide more equal opportunities and higher salaries. I encouraged him to respect his son’s interests and aspirations, emphasizing the importance of seizing opportunities to make a difference. He agreed and recognized the value of embracing potential opportunities.
In contrast, I visited Dr. J the following day. He dominated our conversation, steering the discussion toward research projects and funding, emphasizing the challenges of managing a team and the critical need to secure projects and financial support. I noticed that he seemed somewhat dismissive of the current economic slowdown, although he did acknowledge the existence of unemployed individuals. He mentioned that he benefited from lower prices in ride-hailing services. When he goes out on weekends with his family, he opts for ride-hailing instead of driving his own car, valuing the convenience and cost-effectiveness.
During my visit to Dr. J, I also used a ride-hailing service. Upon getting into the car, the driver informed me that he had waited for 30 minutes before receiving my order, and the final fare was about 1.2 green coins. I wondered how much he could earn from such a ride. As we chatted, he expressed frustration that some passengers arriving from the airport refused to pay an additional fee for crossing districts, leaving him with no choice but to suggest canceling the ride.
At the dinner hosted by Dr. J, I had a brief conversation with a young staff member from the QH Institute. When she learned that I was currently working in the Fishing Village, she exclaimed, “Wonderful! You earn green paper; that is hard currency!” I was impressed by her response. She hailed from a northwestern province, in which few people can even name the major cities. Interestingly, she was equipped with an iPhone 14 or 15 Pro.
During the dinner, I also spoke with a leader from the institute, who demonstrated a broad and deep knowledge of modern history. However, I sensed a strong sense of nationalism rooted in his perspective. I couldn’t determine whether this viewpoint stemmed from his professional position or from his long-term beliefs.
Finally, another driver took me to the airport. I slept for a good portion of the trip, but as we approached the airport, we engaged in conversation. He directly asked whether I had obtained the passport for the Fishing Village. I was surprised and replied that it would still be two years. He then praised the excellent educational and medical facilities in the village and encouraged my wife and me to stay there for the long-term benefits.
This experience led me to several key conclusions:
- The economic shock primarily impacts establishments from a macro perspective, resulting in fewer available projects and funding. However, it does not significantly affect the basic income of individuals within the established system.
- There is a deep sense of depression, high unemployment, and visible distress in the general society.
- Stable contracted drivers working for professional pick-up service companies possess a clear understanding of the current situation. They are more concerned about their children’s futures and feel optimistic about opportunities on the other side of the sea.
- In contrast, the unstable class of ride-hailing drivers experiences much more hardship, with their outlook largely constrained by their immediate income.
- The management board remains resistant to providing additional stimulus. There seems to be no viable path for Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) or Universal Basic Income (UBI), and the depression may deepen, potentially mirroring or exceeding the experiences of JP in the past.
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货币的价值
**一** 没有多少意外，伴随着对川普上台后，放松对加密数字资产监管的预期，周日，比特币上涨超6%，在周一亚市早盘继续冲高至81000美元上方，刷新历史新高。
绝对没有人，在第一次听闻数字货币的时候，不会满心狐疑，心底嘀咕：不会又是一场高级的骗局吧。
是的，你我都那么明智，对自己不懂的东西，当然不要去碰，不是么？
数字货币这个东西，还真的挺难懂的。而且，的的确确，绝大多数的加密货币，最终都一文不值。
曾经，芒格说比特币是“老鼠药”，后来巴菲特又补了一刀：老鼠药的平方。
对比之下，港村的老狐狸，李嘉诚就很有意思了，2018年1月份，老人家说“我就保守的，(比特币)绝对有风险”。
这老狐狸，早在讲这句话的4年前，2014年，研究了一番后，没搞明白，于是“保守地”只买了一亿港币。哦，就李嘉诚的资产比例来说，是挺保守。
2017年，比特币涨了挺多，嗯，1300%。此后，2018年的巴菲特芒格李嘉诚们，不胜其烦地被问。
到了2018年5月，或许是彻底被问烦了，逼迫巴菲特和芒格，不得不去了解一下老鼠屎。在访谈中，巴菲特和芒格的措辞观点，出现了很微妙的变化：巴菲特将比特币与他多年来一直批评的另一种“非生产性”资产进行了比较：黄金。芒格在承认它是“聪明的计算机科学”的同时，认为加密货币是助长“非法活动”的“毫无价值的人造黄金”。
嗯，不妨去掉定语。
要理解比特币，或者说，其底层的区块链，确实有一些完全无法绕过去、必须要搞明白的计算机科学（或者数学）概念，比如：哈希（散列）算法。
其实，也并不需要理解算法本身，知道算法做了一件什么事情，而这件事情，又是多么多么的重要和不可思议，就够了。
可能更吊诡的地方在于，很多（合格的）计算机专业的学生和从业人员，当然都能理解哈希算法是什么和做了什么，但是却不理解，这件事情的重要和不可思议。
而中本聪，恰恰洞察了哈希算法的不可思议性，极其巧妙地将哈希算法融入到比特币系统的设计当中。这其中的美妙绝伦，真的只有巧夺天工四个字可以形容。对于仅有领域知识的计算机专业的学生和从业人员，却不能感受和理解。你说，这吊诡不吊诡？
当然，对于计算机领域的专业人员，进一步去理解这一份精妙，相比于你我，已经没有太多门槛了。
**二** 如果，你还记得2020年3月，全球疫情最严重的时候，美联储在做什么。
没错，只有一个字，印。随后，至少对金融市场来说，仿佛，疫情消失了。不仅美股，几乎一切资产，都绝地反弹。如果，你还记得，老美又随后做了几次，“每个人都发钱，不就相当于都不发钱”的无用功。
哦，我们甚至忘了，做上述一切无用功，完全不需要真的去开动印钞机，真材实料地“印”出，那些有着高成本防伪技术的greenback。在这里，让我们引用《现代货币理论》一书中的几句话：“不要试图去抢银行了，因为钱真的不在那里。银行在美联储有其电子账户——那仅仅是在硬盘上的数字”
还没完呢：“但这与你和我借款买车是不一样的，我们的借款额度受到了限制，而美联储则不受限制地敲击键盘，将某些数字输入电子账户中，准备金则在敲击键盘之后才会产生。”
至于向每个人都发钱，是不是相当于都没发的问题，就不再解释了。而这种“直升机撒钱”的做法，如果持续化和常规化，是实践所谓的全民基本收入（Universial Basic Income）。
一个人，什么都不做，就能定期拿到一笔钱，你说好不好？
**三** 2020年3月，所有人都在卖出，所有资产都在被卖出，除了美元。
美联储说，行，管饱，管够，你们要多少，我给多少。随后，所有人都在买入，所有资产都被买入，除了美元。
那么，货币是什么，货币的价值又是什么。
如果只是簿记员“不受限制地敲击键盘，将某些数字输入电子账户中”，那么，为什么在危机来临的时候，所有人都对这些数字趋之若鹜？哦，还没完呢，如果商业银行的信誉也受到了质疑，那么人们趋之若鹜的，可就不是存折上的数字了，要去排长龙，取出实打实的，greenback。股票账户上的数字，是货币么？有价值么？储蓄账户上的数字，是货币么？有价值么？攥在手里，实打实的钞票，是货币么？有价值么？
聪明如你，好像发现，在大多数时候，上面的是，中间的是，下面的也是，而且，上面的越来越多（仅考虑过去100年的美股），中间的也会慢慢增多一点点点，下面的，嗯，常数。哦，你突然想到了通胀，想到了CPI，惊恐地发现，实打实的钞票，似乎不是常数。
而极少时候，这个方向，似乎反了过来。《货币金字塔》一书这样说：“货币定义为一个分层的系统。这个金融体系每隔几年就会暂时性地陷入混乱，这种混乱只有在政府和央行越来越多的干预下才会平息。”
我们回到比特币，比特币的区块链里，第一个区块，由中本聪创建于2009年，被称为创世区块。它是区块链里面所有区块的共同祖先，这意味着，你从任一区块，循链向后回溯，最终都将到达创世区块。
在创世区块里，中本聪嵌入了2009年1月3日，泰晤士报头版头条的标题：“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout forbanks.”
**四** 货币有价值么？当然有，否则，我不会坐在我用货币购买的Macbook前，敲下这一串的文字。
货币没有价值么？也可能，如果你还记得，20世纪20年代魏玛共和国马克；20多年后，华夏大地上的金圆券，让蒋介石政府彻底失去了民心；最近的，2008年之后，津巴布韦祭出了，面值一百万亿元（对，你没有看错）的单张纸钞。我买了一张，收藏了，淘宝就有卖。
用朋友的话说，就是个数字而已。是的，因为温总理说过：“信心比黄金和货币，更重要。”
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2018年2月5日“波动性末日”（Volmageddon）的回顾与思考
市场观察的目的，并非紧张兮兮、分秒必争地跟随价格涨跌，而是保持对交易环境的敏感，并让这份鲜嫩多汁的思考感受，参与到边缘系统（Limbic system）构建情绪记忆数据库的过程当中。
2018年2月5日，星期一，美股三大股指均下跌4%左右，其中道琼斯工业指数单日跌幅达到4.61%，为2011年年中以来单日最大跌幅。与此同时，长期以来一直有效的做空波动性的策略，也在这一天失效。后续市场将这一天称为“波动性末日（Volmageddon）”。
当时有一支非常流行的ETF（实际为ETN，exchange-traded note，交易所交易票据）名为XIV，这支XIV一度被称为傻子闭着眼睛买，都能够赚钱的神奇标的。XIV的代号，是把芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）波动率指数VIX反过来写，其底层标的是持有挂钩做空VIX的短期期货，也就是说，VIX下跌，即市场波动率下降的过程中（通常表现为美股稳定上涨），XIV也将稳定上涨，且由于期货升水（Contango）效应，XIV能够获得比大盘指数更高的回报。SEC对XIV有如下介绍：
The return on the ETNs is linked to the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index ER less the investor fee. The ETNs provide traders with an exchange traded instrument enabling them to efficiently express their market views on the short-term futures contracts on the CBOE SPX Volatility Index® (the “VIX®”). ：
然而，2018年2月5日这一天，伴随这VIX的暴涨，XIV尽管没有直接归零，但最终清算价格，也达到了80%以上的跌幅，一切都结束了。
这是一种典型的压路机前捡钢镚的投机，尽管在大部分时候是可以赚到钱的，但是一旦It works until it not works这种事件发生，影响将是致命的。
我们简单回顾一下那段时间的市场走势。首先看VIX，一月底至二月初，伴随美股整体下跌，大致有一个从10到18的上升，随后2月5日开盘后，仅仅一天迅速翻倍，飙涨至50，市场波动处于极度恐慌的水平。
美股大盘标普500指数，在2月5日dip后反弹，随后再次下跌至2月9日盘中低点，过程跌幅近12%。
我们来看波动性更强的TQQQ，对标QQQ（纳斯达克100）3倍的日涨幅。自1月29日到2月9日低点，下跌幅度达到1/3.
黄金GLD和长期美债ETF TLT同样下跌。
整个市场都对流动性趋之若鹜，这种动荡的环境下，几乎所有的资产类别，都会出现很强的相关性。
2月9日低点过后，除长期美债继续震荡下跌（2018年处于08年金融危机后，第一次加息周期的中后期），美股和黄金受惠于流动性改善，皆出现可观的反弹，其中科技股表现更好，TQQQ仅用一个月即收复失地。
从货币政策所处的阶段来看，2018年全年有点类似轻量级的2022年，由于rate hiking，整体流动性趋紧，多数资产震荡下跌。但就长期配置而言，类似2月波动性末日事件对应的快速凌厉的下跌，往往是不错的buy the dips的点位。
You can always find a reason to sell, but it may be the timing to buy.
最后的最后，其实XIV还有一个兄弟，ProShares的SVXY，在2018年2月5日的波动性末日之后，下跌了91%，但是Proshares并没有像瑞信一样，对SVXY清盘，而是调降了其杠杆倍数后，继续运作：ProShares kept their products with somewhat changed investment objectives multiples in order to reduce their target exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. SVXY multiple was reduced to -0.5x.
23-24年，是不是有点像16-17年的样子？
- A bit of experience and bitter reflection from my visit to CD
- 货币的价值
- 2018年2月5日“波动性末日”（Volmageddon）的回顾与思考
- 24年10月市场观察
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